GET THEM WHEN THEY'RE YOUNG

This was filmed in June 2009 at the B. Bernice Young Elementary School in Burlington, NJ. I am all for being proud of your country and your president. But this goes too far in my opinion. This is exactly why people were worried about Obama speaking directly to the school children. Obama had nothing to do with this, of course. This is school teachers forgetting what their job is and turning little kids into their personal political tools. I especially like how they stole the song about Jesus "Red and yellow, black and white, they are precious in HIS sight" and re-made it about Obama "Red and yellow, black and white, All are equal in his sight". Nice.



Song 1
Mm, mmm, mm!Barack Hussein Obama

He said that all must lend a hand
To make this country strong again
Mmm, mmm, mm!Barack Hussein Obama

He said we must be fair today
Equal work means equal pay
Mmm, mmm, mm!Barack Hussein Obama

He said that we must take a stand
To make sure everyone gets a chance
Mmm, mmm, mm!Barack Hussein Obama

He said red, yellow, black or white
All are equal in his sight
Mmm, mmm, mm!Barack Hussein Obama

Yes!Mmm, mmm, mmBarack Hussein Obama

Song 2
Hello, Mr. President we honor you today!
For all your great accomplishments, we all doth say "hooray!"

Hooray, Mr. President! You're number one!
The first black American to lead this great nation!

Hooray, Mr. President we honor your great plans
To make this country's economy number one again!

Hooray Mr. President, we're really proud of you!
And we stand for all Americans under the great Red, White, and Blue!

So continue ---- Mr. President we know you'll do the trick
So here's a hearty hip-hooray!
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IT TAKES ONE TO KNOW ONE

Former President Jimmy Carter said he thinks the recent hostility to President Obama's agenda is based on racism. "There is an inherent feeling among many in this country that an African-American should not be president."

While I am sure there are some in this country with that feeling, I personally don't know of any, and I live in the South and listen to lots of "Right Wing" talk radio. The only time race is brought up is in response to outlandish comments like this. I, along with many millions of others, am happy that a black man became president, it proves what a free and great country we live in. But the fact that Obama is the first black president, doesn't mean we all ignore his policies. Conservatives are very upset at the huge swing toward the European-style liberal state that Obama is trying to take us. Socialized medicine, cap-and-tax, government takeover of private businesses, bailouts, massive spending and give-aways, crazy anti-capitalism rhetoric from top White House advisers, illegal activity from top funded groups close to Obama, hostility toward Israel, appeasing Russia and Iran, etc. This is why hundreds of thousands of people showed up in Washington DC last weekend in protest, not because Obama has dark skin!

Maybe Carter is just incapable of saying anything negative about a black person, since he was actually a racist in his past. Maybe he is trying to make up for the guilt?

[Jimmy Carter] was a member of the Sumter County School Board, which did not implement the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education decision handed down by the Supreme Court. Instead, the board continued to segregate school children on the streets of Carter’s hometown. Carter’s board tried to stop the construction of a new “Elementary Negro School” in 1956. Local white citizens had complained that the school would be “too close” to a white school. As a result, “the children, both colored and white, would have to travel the same streets and roads in order to reach their respective schools.” The prospect of black and white children commingling on the streets on their way to school was apparently so horrible to Carter that he requested that the state school board stop construction of the black school until a new site could be found. The state board turned down Carter’s request because of “the staggering cost.” Carter and the rest of the Sumter County School Board then reassured parents at a meeting on October 5, 1956, that the board “would do everything in its power to minimize simultaneous traffic between white and colored students in route to and from school.”

Wow! So why is he qualified to judge others about racism?
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THOSE ACORN PEOPLE ARE NUTS!

The Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN) is continuing to get themselves in trouble. When people think of community organizers, we think of people who selflessly help others in their community. Hopefully most are like this, but many are not. ACORN seems to be a radical, heavily connected and funded group that will do anything and everything in order to get votes for democrats.

The latest trouble shows workers at ACORN helping a couple who claim to be a pimp and a prostitute. This couple is undercover and has a camera. The ACORN people give them advice on how to start a fake business as a cover for the prostitution, how to get tax breaks for money spent turning tricks, and even how to get child tax credits for underage girls smuggled in from El Salvador to work as sex slaves. You have to watch it to believe it:

This is edited and of course the undercover couple had an agenda, but I will assume for now that this is not faked.
ACORN has plenty of other wonderful qualities:

ACORN intimidates banks to give home loans to people who shouldn't qualify, adding to the subprime bubble.

ACORN with 8000 false voter registration cards

ACORN turns in thousands of more false voter registration cards in Indiana

ACORN with more fraud

What is really amazing is ACORN may have gotten funds from the "Stimulus" Bill.
ACORN gets money from the Stimulus Bill

"Neighborhood Stabilization: $4.2 billion to help communities purchase and rehabilitate foreclosed, vacant properties in order to create more affordable
housing and reduce neighborhood blight"

And ACORN was one of the organizations that was part of the 2010 census. Looks like this latest outrage finally put them out of the game!
ACORN was part of the 2010 census.
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GREAT SPEECH - WAS THAT ALL IT WAS?

Obama delivered a speech to all school children today. The speech was awesome overall. It was all about personal responsibility, no excuses, not complaining about things not being fair, working hard even if you're underprivileged, everyone has a talent-find it and use it, stay in school and contribute to your own future and the future of the country, etc. In fact, it was a more conservative speech than I have heard conservatives give! So, I give an A+ on content.

But, unfortunately, Obama's actions do not line up with this rhetoric. Obama's actions are the opposite: we live in an unfair society, the rich take advantage of the poor and must be punished, greed drives most of society, we can't do anything on our own, we need the federal government to help us do everything, minorities can't get ahead without help, Washington has the solution to all our problems. So which is it Obama?!

Original controversy erupted on this speech because a politician (President or not) was forcing himself into every classroom. As President, he holds great power, we live in a country that has historically been very cynical of powerful political leaders (for good reason). Children at school can not vote, they have no choice, they can not change the channel, so many were afraid that there would be unwanted political tones. This is wise to be very cautious in allowing politicians to teach morality. After reading the speech, however, I thought it was a great message. But just because I personally like the message doesn't mean it is a good idea to let politicians speak directly to our children. This is not crazy, right wing fear mongering... it is common sense.

Below are a few excerpts from the speech:

When I was young, my family lived in Indonesia for a few years, and my mother didn’t have the money to send me where all the American kids went to school. So she decided to teach me extra lessons herself, Monday through Friday – at 4:30 in the morning.

I will have to take his word for it here... but this seems like exaggeration to me. How often did he really have to get up at 4:30am to do extra school work growing up?! Call me a cynic ;-)

I want to start with the responsibility you have to yourself. Every Single one of you has something you’re good at. Every single one of you has Something to offer. And you have a responsibility to yourself to discover what that is. That’s the opportunity an education can provide.

Right on! And that is why this country is so great. Because we have the freedom to go out and use our individual talents to improve our own life. If one person is willing to work hard and better his/her life, and another is not, is it then "fair" to forcibly take money (under threat of jail) from the first person and give it to the second person?

And this isn’t just important for your own life and your own future. What you make of your education will decide nothing less than the future of this country. What you’re learning in school today will determine whether we as a nation can meet our greatest challenges in the future.

This is so true! The future of our country certainly hinges on the youth of today. So then what can be said of the fact that in 17 major cities in this country, OVER half of the students in public schools drop out before graduation! To me that points to a broken system. One in desperate need of change. This speech will not change that sad fact.

You’ll need the knowledge and problem-solving skills you learn in Science and math to cure diseases like cancer and AIDS, and to develop new energy technologies and protect our environment. You’ll need the insights and critical thinking skills you gain in history and social studies to fight poverty and homelessness, crime and discrimination, and make our nation more fair and more free. You’ll need the creativity and ingenuity you develop in all your classes to build new companies that will create new jobs and boost our economy.

This is a lot of liberal goo. At least he added build companies and create jobs at the end of this list. Your going to need someone to tax to pay for curing AIDS, protecting the environment, fighting poverty, fighting homelessness and discrimination, and making the nation more fair. Probably not what kids are thinking though: "I want to become a doctor/lawyer, so I can be taxed at over 50% of my income to help fight homelessness!"

My father left my family when I was two years old, and I was raised by a single mother who struggled at times to pay the bills and wasn’t always able to give us things the other kids had.

Barack Obama really has a great personal story. It shows how hard work and a determination to win can overcome every single obstacle. This is a rare thing in human history, and one that, while not exclusive to the United States, is concentrated here! So why does Obama travel the world apologizing for our country and his wife says she has only just been proud of it?

But at the end of the day, the circumstances of your life – what you look like, where you come from, how much money you have, what you’ve got going on at home –that’s no excuse for neglecting your homework or having a bad attitude. That’s no excuse for talking back to your teacher, or cutting class, or dropping out of school. That’s no excuse for not trying.

RIGHT ON!

I know that sometimes, you get the sense from TV that you can be rich and successful without any hard work — that your ticket to success is through rapping or basketball or being a reality TV star, when chances are, you’re not going to be any of those things. But the truth is, being successful is hard.

PREACH IT BROTHER!

Over all, like I said, a terrific speech. A message I certainly HOPE sinks in to a few and they CHANGE for the better.
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CONGRESS HARD AT WORK

Congress is back, and hard at work:




On one hand, it is of course a disgrace. Congress has just returned from a month off and are "debating" the budget. Actually, they are completely ignoring everything, playing on the Internet, e-mail, solitaire, etc. I especially like the little American flags next to each laptop, very patriotic as they erode the foundation of this great nation. When the vote comes they will just pass the hugely blotted bill written by a slew of lawyers and lobbyists, knowing close to nothing about the billions/trillions of dollars they just spent. They will be happy as long as their personal, pet projects got funded.

On the other hand, it is quite a fitting picture of where we seem to be going as a country. After all, we elect these people every 4 years, and most will be elected again in 2010 and 2012. Are we all becoming like this? Lazy, self-absorbed, believing we are more important than we are, expecting high pay and a good life while putting forth little effort? When the time comes, are we still the rugged, freedom loving, individuals that made this country, or have we become a soft, entitlement minded people, just looking for the easy way out?

I hope, when called upon, we are still the former. I believe in that.
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MOLECULE REVEALED

Atoms within a single molecule were pictured for the first time by a team at IMB.
They used a metal needle only 1 atom wide at the tip and put a single carbon-monoxide at the tip of that. They then traced a molecule of pentacene and measured the forces between the atoms.

The experiment was performed at -268 C in high vacuum. The picture that resulted easily shows the structure of the molecule.


Cool.
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PAY YOUR FAIR SHARE

I always hear things like:

"The rich get richer, the poor get poorer"

"The shrinking middle class"

"Tax cuts for the rich"

"Unfair burden on the poor"

"Greedy rich people"

It goes on and on. Most recently I hear congress and the President justifying their new programs by saying only people making over $250,000 a year will see tax increases. It seems fair on the surface. If you make a ton of money, you can afford to pay a few more taxes. But how much income taxes do the rich pay? And how much is enough?

The updated IRS data is out

Looking at some of that data graphically:

This is rather unbelievable really. The top 1% tax payers in this country (1.4 million people) are now paying MORE than the bottom 95% of tax payers (134 million people) combined!

If you're doing the math you're saying to yourself... "that's only about 140 million people. I thought there were twice that many people in this country". You are right. The bottom 50% of wage earners in this country don't really pay any income tax at all.

Granted, the average income of the bottom 50% is only $15,000/yr. But if we get to the point where a majority of the country doesn't have to pay any income taxes (which is where we are headed), then you have created a permanent majority voting block that can vote itself whatever it wants. Free healthcare - Yes, Free housing - Yes, Free education - Yes, Free college - Yes, Free food - Yes, Free transportation - Yes, Free retirement - Yes, etc. And there will always be plenty of politicians ready to "help" the underprivileged.

“When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.” - Benjamin Franklin

Charts via Tax Foundation
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The Refreshing Truth

Greenpeace tried to declare that by 2030 we would be seeing "ice free" summers in the Arctic. By declaring such sensationalism, they hope to persuade people to jump on board with limiting carbon dioxide.

Finally, however, reporters are beginning to question these ridiculous statements. The BBC pressed Gerd Leipold, the retiring leader of Greenpeace. Leipold had to admit that the ice wasn't going to be gone, he explained that "we, as a pressure group, have to emotionalize issues."

And there you have it! The truth, finally! It's not about science, its about emotion. Do it because it feels good, not because it is actually going to cool the planet.



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History of Government health care costs

The house has passed HR3200 "America's Affordable Health Choices Act". As a general rule, one should assume that a bill does the exact opposite of what the title says, so "Affordable" and "Choices" in the title are red flags. The summary is:

This is the House Democrats' big health care reform bill. Broadly, it seeks to expand health care coverage to the approximately 40 million Americans who are currently uninsured by lowering the cost of health care and making the system more efficient. To that end, it includes a new government-run insurance plan to compete with the private companies, a requirement that all Americans have health insurance, a prohibition on denying coverage because of pre-existing conditions and, to pay for it all, a surtax on households with an income above $350,000.

It isn't like this is the first government run health program. We have many of them. So lets look at the performance of the others to see if we can predict the performance of this. Promoters of this bill estimate that it will cost about $1 trillion over the next 10 years. Negotiators in the Senate and House are now saying they've whittled the cost down to "only" $900 billion or so.

From 1968 to 2007 federal spending went from $178 billion to $2,729 billion. So overall spending has increased 15 times in 40 years.

As Medicare was being considered in the 1960's it was estimated to cost $10 billion by 1990, actual costs were $107 billion that year, so congress estimated 10 times less than the actual costs! Medicare went from a cost of $5.1 Billion in 1968 to $436 billion in 2007, an incredible increase of 85 times the original cost 40 years ago!

What about Medicaid? In 1968 the program cost $1.8 billion, 40 years later it is at $191 billion. That is a ridiculous 106 fold increase in the cost of the program!!!!

So will Obama's health care plan be better? Empty promises is all it is.
If it follows the other similar programs, it will cost $10 Trillion dollars in 25 years, that is 4 times ALL Income tax from EVERYONE collected today!
So obviously it can not be paid for by taxing ONLY those earning over $250,000 a year as Obama has promised.
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"Recovery" for Obama, "Mixed Showing" for Bush

Today the unemployment rate dropped from 9.5% to 9.4% for July (even though a net 247,000 jobs were lost). Back in 1992, we were also struggling with a poor economy. President Bush (senior) was up for re-election that November. That July, the unemployment number also droped 1/10th of a point, from 7.8% to 7.7%

The New York Times reacted a bit differently however. Byron York has the details:

The front page of the New York Times is filled with hope about the nation's economic situation. The lead story, "Job Losses Slow, Signaling Momentum for a Recovery," reporting a decline in the unemployment rate from 9.5 percent in June to 9.4 percent in July, begins by declaring that, "The most heartening employment report since last summer suggested on Friday that a recovery was under way -- and perhaps gathering steam.""Employers are no longer in a panic," one expert tells the Times. The paper reports that Obama administration officials "credited the stimulus package" for the improvement, and "some said" job losses would be far worse had the $787 billion stimulus not been passed. The paper quotes President Obama saying his administration has "rescued our economy from catastrophe."Put that together with earlier data that the economy shrank at a one percent annual rate in the second quarter, and the Times reports that the news has "convinced many forecasters that when the history of the Great Recession is written, these summer months will be the big turning point, when the economy started to grow again." Of course, there's some "unsettling information" in the new economic data, but overall, the message of the Times story is: Good news -- the recovery is underway.

The Times hasn't always been so optimistic when it comes to one-tenth-of-a-point declines in the unemployment rate. On this very day in 1992, in the midst of the presidential campaign between George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, the government also reported that the unemployment rate ticked downward by one tenth of a point, and the Times' treatment was far more restrained."Jobless Rate Dips a Notch to 7.7% in Mixed Showing," was the front-page headline of the August 8, 1992 Times. "The nation's jobless rate improved marginally last month, edging down to 7.7 percent from 7.8 percent,"the Times reported. "But the improvement was not enough to signal a stronger economic recovery or to help President Bush as he heads into the Republican National Convention." Even though the number of jobs actually went up in July 1992 (as opposed to the decline of 247,000 jobs in July 2009), the 1992 Times reported that the economic news "gave no suggestion that the economic recovery was breaking out of its painfully slow pace or, more important, that the job growth was picking up enough to push the unemployment rate down significantly before the election in November." Pollster Peter Hart told the paper that, "There couldn't be worse political news for George Bush."Under the sub-headline "Stagnant Period Seen," the Times reported that "most forecasters" predicted "more of the same: an economy that is just muddling along." The Times looked deep into the data to find "disappointing" numbers everywhere; many of the new jobs were in the service sector, there weren't enough construction jobs, some of the improvement was the result of a government program. (The Times appeared less enthusiastic about government stimulus back then.)

As it turned out, the one-tenth-of-a-point drop in the unemployment rate in July 1992 signaled the end of the increase in the jobless rate. Looking at this table from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, you can see that at the very moment the Times was declaring a period of stagnation, the unemployment rate was in fact beginning a long decline that would extend through the Clinton years. Of course, the Times' editors and writers didn’t know that then, and they stressed the negative aspects of the economic news. But they don't know what's going to happen now, either, and they're filled with hope. Quite a difference

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Cartoon of the Day

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Hey, we elect them!

During his speech at a National Press Club luncheon, House Judiciary Chairman John Conyers (D-Mich.), questioned the point of lawmakers reading the health care bill.
“I love these members, they get up and say, ‘Read the bill,’” said Conyers.
“What good is reading the bill if it’s a thousand pages and you don’t have two days and two lawyers to find out what it means after you read the bill?”



It would be one thing if he was making a point that the Bill is way too complicated and congress needs to simplify it and reduce it to make it easier to enact and follow. I would be cheering him on!

But, of course, he isn't. He is saying it is too complicated for HIM to waste time reading. He couldn't understand it if he did! So he will just vote "Yes" on it and leave it up to us to obey it and businesses across the country and doctors and lawyers to re-do their entire systems to comply with it. Billions and Billions of dollars will be spent on lawyers and experts and lawsuits and education and new departments and regulations and paperwork to teach the masses how to comply and what the new options are. But the leaders, who supposedly wrote the Bill, don't have to worry. No, they can't be bothered with understanding it... after all, they get to keep their current FEHBP Health Insurance. The rest of us huddled masses are left to figure it out. While we do, they will be off saving the planet with a cap-and-trade bill that they also don't read or understand the consequences of!
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New, Better, Efficient, Cheaper

I'm not sure if this is entirely accurate, I don't know that anyone can really tell. But some have tried to chart the new "Public Option" for health care that is being debated. The result:

Hmmm. I believe there is a few opportunities for waste and corruption in there somewhere. Why anyone would want politicians controlling our health options is beyond me.

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A fish and a half

I have been restoring an old aluminum fishing boat over the last year. I finally got it done and was able to take it out on the lake this past weekend. Had a very enjoyable afternoon. However, I didn't catch any fish and I broke a pole.

This girl seemed to have more luck:

Wow, I can only imagine how cool that was. She will remember that for the rest of her life. Great Job Jessica! It's really neat how they took the picture then released the fish. Maybe someone else will get to catch it one day.

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What is "Carbon Pollution"

The house has passed the American Clean Energy and Security Act. This bill is claimed to create green jobs, reduce "carbon pollution", and ultimately save the planet. Sounds great.

Unfortunately, if the results are like other countries that have done the same thing, it will actually destroy over 2 jobs for every green job it creates; not reduce any carbon output, but instead increase the tax burden on companies; create many new government agencies, bureaucracies, regulations and mandates making doing business more complicated and expensive; and not affect the temperature of the planet one bit.

As a follow up to this post on macro climate change, I will talk about carbon dioxide.

As a Chemical Engineer, I find the demonization of carbon dioxide incredibly frustrating and insulting. Carbon dioxide has somehow been turned into a pollutant, some kind of dangerous gas that humans “spew” out by their greed and industrialization and general raping of the planet. Nothing could be farther from the truth! Carbon dioxide is an absolute essential substance for all life on this planet. It is as fundamental to life as water! Carbon dioxide, by design or by evolution, is an ingenious battery, which is used to store vast amounts of energy from the sun that can then be used by all life on this planet.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is used in a plant and combined with water to form oxygen and sugars in a process called photosynthesis. Energy is required to perform this task; the energy comes from sun light. See below (click to enlarge):

CO2 + 2 H2O + photons → (CH2O)n + H2O + O2
carbon dioxide + water + light energy → carbohydrate + oxygen + water
In this way, plants can convert solar energy into stored energy. All life on this planet is carbon based, meaning it is mainly built out of carbon atoms. This is because we are all built out of carbon dioxide, we all get our energy and mass from the sun and the carbon dioxide molecule!

In actuality, oxygen is a byproduct (a pollutant if you will) of this process. In order for life to continue, the excess oxygen buildup must be converted back into carbon dioxide (releasing the stored energy). Animals (again by design or by evolution) aid in this by using the sugars and metabolizing them back into carbon dioxide, water vapor, and energy. This gives them the energy required to function and grow without absorbing it from the sun. The carbon dioxide energy can also be released by burning (oxygen reacting with organic matter and releasing heat energy, water vapor, and carbon dioxide).

Current levels of CO2 are around 300-400ppm (parts per million) depending on where you are. This is the low end of what plants need to grow. Plants have been shown to double their growth rate in environments of 2000 ppm with plenty of light. So, from a plants perspective, we are currently suffocating plant life on this planet with our extremely low levels of CO2.

I have created a picture of what dry air (what you are breathing right now minus water vapor) looks like below (click to enlarge):

1 “dot” = 100 ppm

Green is Nitrogen 780,800 ppm (78.08 %)
Blue is Oxygen 209,500 ppm (20.95 %)
Orange is Argon 9,300 ppm (0.93 %)
Black is Carbon Dioxide 350 ppm (0.03 %)
Red is other 50 ppm (0.01 %)

Water vapor, depending on temperature and available moisture, is anywhere from 1000 ppm (0.1%) to 40,000 ppm (4 %) of our air.

All the Global Warming alarmism is based on computer models saying carbon dioxide will go up to 450-600 ppm over the next decades or centuries from our fossil fuel burning. So, instead of 3 black dots there will be 5 or 6 in our air picture above. How does this destroy the planet?! Keep in mind, water vapor is a greenhouse gas also and fluctuates all the time from maybe 10 - 400 “dots” in our air picture!

The chart below shows the greenhouse gases and how much we as humans contribute. Numbers vary greatly depending on the source, so I took 4 different sources and averaged them. If anyone can find a good breakdown of how much CO2 is released by man (Burning fossil fuels and burning wood) and how much is natural (animal and people breathing, natural fires, volcanoes, vegetation and animal decay) I would appreciate it.

Clearly, we do not have as big of an impact on greenhouse gasses as we are led to believe.

But is the increase in CO2 bad for us?
Humans breathe out about 45,000 ppm carbon dioxide. At 20,000 ppm humans will increase heart rate and breathing. At 50,000 ppm we will become dizzy and have difficulty breathing. At 80,000 ppm we will get headaches, sweating, and lose of consciousness in 5-10 minutes. So carbon dioxide levels would have to go up over 50 fold (5000%) for us to even notice!

Even as CO2 levels have increased slightly (20 ppm) over the last 10 years, temperatures have not. In fact, they may be showing a downward trend over the last 5 years.

In conclusion, I don’t understand the hysteria over carbon dioxide. It does not seem to directly cause heating/cooling of the earth. At most, it is a small player of a secondary warming effect of which we only contribute or can control a small percentage. It is, however, an absolute necessity for all life.

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It's not just a personal matter

I am late to this story, I have been on vacation. But my governor, Mark Sanford, went "missing" last week. News stories began surfacing like this one, no one seemed to know where he was. His staff said he was hiking the Appalachian Trail which is a nearly 2200 mile trail through the Appalachian mountains. His wife claimed she didn't know where he was. Local talk radio began buzzing with people defending him saying he just needed time off, and other saying going AWOL for a week was bizarre at best.

At the time I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, I would want some personal time alone if I was in the public eye all the time. But I was fearing something worse.

When he returned the story became even more bazaar. He wasn't hiking, instead he flew off to Argentina. He said he was just driving around enjoying the beautiful city. It became obvious that he was not telling the truth as the lies began to compound and contradict.

Finally, he reveled that he was actually in Argentina, meeting his Mistress who was a long time friend. His news conference is here:


He resigned as chairman of the Republican Governors' Association but did not offer to resign as governor. The South Carolina Republican Party then voted to censure Sanford, but came short of demanding his resignation. This was the first time a sitting governor has been censured by the SC Republican Party.

I have always been a strong supporter of Mark Sanford. He has been a Conservative leader not only in this state but nationwide. He has held down the ballooning budgets of SC and even stood against the White House trying to block the "stimulus" money. However, this is not excusable regardless of how much I like the man politically. I reject the opinions that personal life is separate from public life and we shouldn't judge him. He holds himself out as a moral, Christian and Conservative man. He had the trust of his family, sons, and voters. He has violated that trust and lied to his wife, family, and the public. His marriage is falling apart and he is skipping out of the state to have sex with a woman in South America. If he can not even keep his promise to his wife and maintain his family unit, why would I trust him with the responsibility of an entire state and billions of dollars? I call for Mark Sanford to resign as governor, go home, and try to get his life back in proper priority.
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Up, Up, and Away

US unemployment rate has reached 9.5% nationally. Below is Obama's predicted results of his stimulus package. In February, he claimed that unless the stimulus bill was passed the recession would be "catastrophic" and "irreversible".



Now he says: "Obviously we are deeply concerned about the employment rate. What we are still seeing is too many jobs lost - too many families who are worried about whether they are going to be next."


No kidding... The question is, can the Federal Government spend its way into prosperity. I think the answer is obviously no. Now, instead of just high unemployment, we have high unemployment and massive record debt.

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The $134 Billion dollar suitcase

This is an absolutely amazing story. Two Japanese men were found in Italy with a briefcase holding $134 Billion American dollars in bond certificates! That’s 134,000 Millions!

This is enough money to buy the entire GDP of New Zealand! Farmland in the US is around $5000 an acre. These men could have bought 27 million acres, a plot of land the size of Ohio!

I have not seen a follow-up story yet as to whether these are fake or real. If real, there is a lot of explaining to do!

UPDATE: It seems these are fakes... which makes sense considering the huge amount.
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Seasons from Space

This is timelapse of the north pole from 1978 until 2009:

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The sky is falling

Boy hit by meteorite:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20090612/sc_space/boyhitbymeteorite

If you stand outside right now and a meteorite is plummeting toward earth, it has a 1 in 2,745,184,657,040,000 (that’s 2.7 quadrillion) chance of hitting you (assuming you take up 2 square feet of area). With maybe 20,000 meteorites hitting earth each year, and 6 billion people on the planet, someone has a 1 in 9 Billion chance of getting hit each year (if we all stand outside all day).
Maybe this kid should buy a lottery ticket or something.

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Ballooning Money

Lets say you own a business. You bring in $24,000 profit from your business each year as income for your family. The entire business has $140,000 a year in sales. But, if you add up the debts you owe your suppliers, the building, your mortgage, and your credit cards, and your car payments, you owe over a Million dollars. Liabilities of over a million dollars with a 24 thousand dollar income, NOT GOOD! That is the position our federal government is in right now... only each of those numbers has 8 more zero's on the end! The profit is tax revenue (2.4 trillion), the sales are total GDP (14 trillion), and the debts are Social Security, pensions, Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. (100+ trillion).

US budget deficits:

As crazy as this is, the monetary base is even crazier. Monetary base is the sum of all the coins and bills in circulation, the vault cash at the banks, and the reserves held at the Fed. Normally 95% of the monetary base is in circulation, and 5% is in bank reserves. But back in September the Fed began pumping the market full of cash, almost $1 Trillion. This was all dumped into the bank reserves to promote lending. Bank reserves have jumped almost 20-fold, now the currency portion of the monetary base is less than 50%!

This is enabling the banks to make many new loans and increase the cash that is in circulation. Without actual GDP increase to back up this new money in circulation, the money becomes diluted, and inflation and rising interest rates are what follows.

A final disturbing aspect is that it seems the Fed doesn't even know where the money is going. They are just blindly pumping into the banking systems.

Question: Well, I understand that, but we’re talking about events that started unfolding eight months ago. Have you reached any conclusions about the Fed expanding its balance sheet by over a trillion dollars since last September?

Elizabeth A. Coleman: We have not yet reached any conclusions.

Question: you’re the Inspector General. My question specifically is do you know who received that $1 trillion-plus that the Fed extended and put on its balance sheet since last September. Do you know the identity of the recipients?

Elizabeth A. Coleman: I do not know. We have not looked at that specific area at this particular point on those reviews.

Question: So I’m asking you if your agency has in fact, according to Bloomberg, extended $9 trillion in credit, which by the way works out to $30,000 for every single men, women, and child in this country. I’d like to know if you’re not responsible for investigating that, who is?

Elizabeth A. Coleman: We, actually… we have responsibility for the Federal Reserve’s programs and operations, to conduct audits and investigations in that area.

Question: What have you done to investigate the off-balance sheet transactions conducted by the Federal Reserve, which according to Bloomberg now total $9 trillion in the last eight months.

Elizabeth A. Coleman: At this point, we’re conducting our lending facility project at a fairly high level and have not gotten to a specific level of detail to really be in a position to respond to your question.

Question: Have you conducted any investigation or auditing of the losses that the Federal Reserve has experienced on its lending since last September?

Elizabeth A. Coleman: We are still in the process of conducting that review. Until we actually, you know, go out and gather the information, I’m not in a position to really respond to this specific question.

Question: So are you telling me that nobody at the Federal Reserve is keeping track on a regular basis of the losses that it incurs on what is now a $2 trillion portfolio?

Elizabeth A. Coleman: I don’t know if… you’re telling me that there’s… you’re… missing… that there are losses. I’m just saying that we’re not… until we actually look at the program and have the information, we are not in a position to say whether there are losses or to respond in any other way to that question.

Alan Grayson: Mr. Chairman, my time is up, but I have to tell you honestly, I am shocked to find out that nobody at the Federal Reserve including the Inspector General is keeping track of this.

The months and years ahead will be interesting indeed! Someday economists will write books about what we are experiencing. Somehow I doubt it is going to be a happy ending.
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Detroit: how did we let this happen?

This is an incredible story. I have never lived in Detroit, so I don't know this stuff first hand. I don't understand how we let a city get this bad. With the current automotive bankruptcies, I am sure it isn't getting any better.

The City Where the Sirens Never Sleep


One interesting thing I have seen in the news. Immigrants (legal), are buying some of these extremely dilapidated, cheap houses and starting new small communities. Despite how terrible the conditions seem to us, they are far better than where these people came from. Maybe this is how Detroit will be re-made.
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What Stimulus

Back in February I sent the following e-mail to my friends and family about the then proposed “Stimulus Bill”:

I think we can agree the economy is having a tough time. All have been hurt by savings accounts (retirement, college, etc.) that have dropped, many have been touched by lower salaries/hours at work, some have even lost their jobs or are unsure of the future of their employment. These concerns are real. We must all look to help those who we can help, and pray for those who we can not help. It is OUR responsibility to help our family and neighbors, not Washington's!

Facts:
The stock market (DOW) has dropped from 12200 last February to 8200 today! That is a 33% drop in your savings or wealth you had invested in one year!
Unemployment has risen to over 7%. A number we have not seen in 15 years.

Currently, our elected officials are in Washington trying to solve this problem. They have put their collective abilities together and have come up with a 1550 page, $900,000,000,000 plan they call the "Stimulus Bill". You can see the bill here: http://readthestimulus.org/
My friends, I don't care if you are a Republican, Democrat, Independent or other...
these 1550 pages and $900 Billion dollars WILL NOT make America's future brighter and pull us out of a recession! Our new President, Barack Obama has declared that unless congress passes this bill NOW, the recession could be "catastrophic" and "irreversible" http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090205/ap_on_go_pr_wh/congress_stimulus_126
Let us examine this bill... tell me if NOT doing the following will cause a PERMANENT IRREVERSIBLE CATASTROPHIC RECESSION!!

$50 million for the National Endowment for the Arts
$380 million in the Senate bill for the Women, Infants and Children program
$300 million for grants to combat violence against women
$2 billion for federal child-care block grants
$6 billion for university building projects
$15 billion for boosting Pell Grant college scholarships
$4 billion for job-training programs, including $1.2 billion for “youths” up to the age of 24
$1 billion for community-development block grants
$4.2 billion for “neighborhood stabilization activities”
$650 million for digital-TV coupons;
$90 million to educate “vulnerable populations”

See more! http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjcyODIyZGM2MGU1ZDdkNDgxZDc3OTNjYjM4ZDY1ODI=

This is a terrible abuse by our government to use a crisis in the county and our collective desire to "Do something about it" to enlarge their own power. The government does not have the money for this Bill, it does not exist. It will simply be printed, be "borrowed" by increasing the national debt to unheard of levels. We will pay for it in future years by higher interest rates as inflation goes up and higher taxes that will be "necessary" to "balance the budget".

I am fortunate that my two Senators and my House representative are voting NO on this Bill. If yours is not, I strongly suggest you call them and let them know what you think. Contact them here: http://www.usa.gov/Contact/Elected.shtml

If you think that this bill will save America and is necessary, may I point you to the companies that have been "bailed out" with the last $800 Billion that was "spent" to "save the economy"

AIG received $40 Billion see stock performance http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AAIG
Bank of America received $45 Billion see stock performance http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bac
Wells Fargo received $25 Billion see stock performance http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:WFC
Citigroup received $25 Billion see stock performance http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:C
GM&GMAC received $10 Billion see stock performance http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:GM

Unfortunately, this bill became law, and the politicians were given almost a trillion dollars they didn’t have to spend. Well, it is now 4 months later. I thought I would check in to see where the money has gone and what it has done.

I will start with unemployment. Barack Obama claimed that unless his stimulus bill was passed, unemployment would reach 9.1% in 2010. With his stimulus plan, unemployment would top out this year at about 8% and quickly go back down. So what is the result? The below graph is from Obama’s original stimulus estimate, I have overlaid, in red, the actual numbers.






Either the stimulus bill had the opposite effect and increased unemployment, or it did nothing at all and the government underestimated how high it would go. Either way the stimulus has so far failed at its most significant measure and its main purpose, to keep people working.

In my e-mail I predicted that the result of this bill would be record debts, higher taxes and higher inflation/interest rates. Unfortunately, this is starting to come true. 10-yr treasury notes (the rate in which mortgages and other loans are measured against) has jumped almost 50% from March to 3.7%. 30-yr mortgages have increased 3/4 of a point. The 1.8 Trillion dollar budget deficit this year is 4 times larger than the previous record high deficit under Bush. And what about higher taxes? They are coming. Fed chief Ben Bernanke testified to congress last week:

BERNANKE: Relative to that CBO baseline, I mean, it's evident that either cuts in spending or increases in taxes, will be necessary to stabilize the fiscal condition.

QUESTION: Recently, as I believe you know, S&P downgraded U.K.'s debt on May 21st from stable to negative. So what's going to happen if the U.S. loses its AAA rating? Or what happens if we have a 60 percent tax increase over the next 10 years to deal with this massive infusion of debt?

BERNANKE: at some point, you'll hit a point where you'll have to have both very draconian cuts and very large tax increases, which is not something we want. So in order to avoid that outcome down the road, we need to begin now to plan how we're going to get the fiscal situation into a better balance in the medium term.

QUESTION: If I look at the bills we've had here on the floor the last couple of weeks we were in session and this week, virtually everything we're doing either authorizes or appropriates more money -- spending -- even, in many cases, than what is anticipated in the charts that we have talked about today. What are the economic consequences of continuing that sort of trend?

BERNANKE: we need to make a plan, some decisions, about how we're going to bring the budget closer to balance over the medium term. And that means that as you discuss various programs that include spending, you need to think about the revenue sources that would be related to that. If you don't do that, then, again, you'll see interest rates rise and you'll see reluctance of lenders to provide credit to the U.S. government. That would be a very bad outcome.

Does anyone think the government is going to drastically cut spending?! Ha… excuse me while I stop laughing. Tax increases are on the way. But I know, I know… I am not being fair. Only a small percent of the stimulus money has been spent (printed). So we just need to give it more time. Eventually, the economy will rebound on its own, like in every other recession, at that point we can say it was because of the stimulus bill.

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Macro Climate Change

During times of universal deceit,
telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.
~ George Orwell

Our new administration, in an effort to curb global warming, is introducing a comprehensive "New Energy for America Plan". You can see the plan here:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy
Part of this plan is to "Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050."
“Greenhouse gas emissions” is Carbon Dioxide. CO2

President Obama was talking about this all throughout his campaign. In a speech in St. Paul on June 3, 2008 he said the following:
OBAMA: "If we are willing to work for it and fight for it and believe in it, then I am absolutely certain that generations from now we will be able to look back and tell our children that ... This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal."

The argument is that carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels, is the principle driving force of climate change. And, by limiting our human output of CO2, we can reverse the warming trend planet wide. This theory was started in 1958 by Oceanographer Roger Revelle and Geochemist David Keeling. You can read the history of the Global Warming theory, how the IPCC was started and how Al Gore got involved as told by the founder of The Weather Channel, John Coleman (highly suggested reading):
http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/38574742.html
As the article mentions, Roger Revelle later urged caution not too arouse too much alarm until more facts are known if the greenhouse effect is important.

Many promoting this theory will show slides such as the one below as proof that as carbon dioxide goes up it leads to higher temperatures:

Such data is highly suspect in my opinion. The first problem is cause and effect. The above graph gives no information as to what caused what. Temperature and ice cream sales go up every summer and down every winter. However, it is not ice cream sales that cause temperature; it is, of course, the temperature that causes the sale of ice cream. So, is a warming planet causing CO2 to go up, or is CO2 causing the planet to warm?

Another problem is correlation vs causation. Just because there is a correlation does not mean there is causation. I will illustrate with the graph below of the stock price of Apple Computers.

Obviously, there is a correlation between temperature and stock price over this 2 year period. Every winter it is high, then falls every summer. But that does not mean there is causation. It would be silly to assume that the temperature drives the sales of Apple computers... and thinking that way would make you lose lots of money because after 06 the correlation falls apart.
The final problem is reliability. Scientists are smart. But I put very, VERY little faith in the ability of us to measure to the exact Parts Per Million of CO2 in our atmosphere thousands and millions of years ago. The number of assumptions and errors are very large. See here: http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/002176.html
A simple Google search will give hundreds of pages of people arguing passionately for and against various aspects of this data. I am not qualified to judge, but clearly there is plenty of controversy, suggesting this is more of a political thing than a scientific thing.

We do, however, have some pretty decent data suggesting that our climate has been going through periods of heating and cooling throughout its history. We have good evidence that sometime around 12,000 years ago America was covered by huge glacier ice. This ice sheet formed the great lakes and calculations estimate it needed to be 2.5 miles thick to do the damage that is seen today. Also, it was not a singular event, but estimates are that 8 or 10 times North America was covered by glaciers and then they receded. The History Channel has a great episode on this, but unfortunately is no longer available on their website. A more cartoonish version is here: http://www.on.ec.gc.ca/greatlakeskids/GreatLakesMovie5.html

Since that time there has been numerous warming and cooling, none of which were as extreme as the ice age: Author Matt Patterson summarizes:

Around the 3rd century B.C., the planet emerged from a long cold spell. The warm period which followed lasted about 700 years, and since it coincided with the rise of Pax Romana, it is known as the Roman Warming.

In the 5th century A.D., the earth's climate became cooler. Cold and drought pushed he tribes of northern Europe south against the Roman frontier. Rome was sacked, and the Dark Ages commenced. And it was a dark age, both metaphorically and literally -- the sun's light dimmed and gave little warmth; harvest seasons grew shorter and yielded less. Life expectancy and literacy plummeted. The plague appeared and decimated whole populations.

Then, inexplicably, about 900 A.D. things began to warm. This warming trend would last almost 400 years, a well documented era known as the Medieval Warm Period. Once again, as temperatures rose harvests and populations grew. Vineyards made their way into Northern Europe, including Britain. Art and science flourished in what we now know as the Renaissance.

Then around 1300 A.D. things cooled drastically. This cold spell would last almost 500 years, a severe climate event known as the Little Ice Age. Millions died in famine as glaciers advanced all over the world. The plague returned. In Greenland, the Norse colony that had been established during the Medieval Warming froze and starved. Arctic pack ice descended south, pushing Inuit peoples to the shores of Scotland. People ice skated on the Thames; they walked from Staten Island to Manhattan over a frozen New York Harbor. The year 1816 was remembered as the year without a summer, with some portions of the Northern Hemisphere seeing nowfall in June.

(Additional info about 1816; Volcanic eruptions added to the already cold weather: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer)

But around 1850 the planet began to warm up yet again. Glaciers retreated. Temperatures rose. This is the warming period which we are still enjoying today. And once again, the warmth brought bounty: The last 150 years have seen an explosion in life expectancy, population, and scientific progress like never before.

The below chart is a reconstruction (again I put little faith in the exact numbers… but general trends I think have validity)

So my first questions jump out at this point. If the earth has been going through oscillations of hotter and colder periods for all known time, then why is the current hotter period anything special? And why, all the sudden, is it caused by humans, and why do we think we can stop it?

Environmentalists and Politicians are using the current warming spell to their benefit. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses the last 20 years of data to project a doomsday scenario where oceans rise wiping out island nations and coastal populations, vast extinctions occur, weather is changed, famines occur, etc, etc. (Reminder to read the kusi.com link above to see how the IPCC was started and funded)

As recently as Sunday April 19, 2009, our current Energy Secretary Steven Chu, was giving dire warnings of how island nations may be underwater this century as well as vast amounts of Florida and other coastal states.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/04/19/energy-secretary-offers-dire-global-warming-prediction/

The below chart shows the IPCC predictions based on their computer models:

But, unfortunately for the doomsdayers… the earth has been COOLING over the past 5 years or so.

We are also seeing a major decrease in solar activity:

In fact, the Sun has reached its “quietest time” in 50-100 years:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8008473.stm
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm

The Sun is the original and only source of heat and energy for this planet (with the exception of the molten earth core). Even fossil fuels are stored solar energy from the past. So as the Sun goes, so do we.

If the sun is decreasing in output, and the weather is cooling, why are the ice caps melting?
Well, recent research is starting to show that they may not be at all. Australia Antarctic Division glaciology program head Ian Allison said sea ice losses in west Antarctica over the past 30 years had been more than offset by increases in the Ross Sea region, just one sector of east Antarctica. "Sea ice conditions have remained stable in Antarctica generally," Allison said.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,517035,00.html
Keep in mind, melting on a land mass (like Antartica or Greenland) is the only melting that can contribute to ocean rise. The entire Artic and other ice sheets and ice burgs are floating, so if they melt the sea levels will not be affected at all (90% of floating ice is already underwater, when ice cubes melt in a cup, the cup does not get fuller).

In conclusion, macro climate change is nothing new. And certainly there are many more inputs and variables vastly outside our ability to control than burning of fossil fuels. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t curb our use of fossil fuels or that they don’t affect anything at all, but simply reducing our usage of coal and oil is not going to “heal the planet” as our President and others want us to believe. In order to heal you must be sick, the planet warming 0.8 oC on average over the last 100 years does not point to it being sick, it shows that it is perfectly normal.

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More spending is not the answer

Most politicians, when encountering a budget surplus, quickly find ways to spend the extra money. They begin new programs, or increase existing programs, growing the size of the government. Then, when (not if) revenues fall, they run around claiming they have no money and must raise taxes to balance the budget. Then when revenues go up again, they take the extra money and grow government. It is a never ending cycle of always needing more money and needing to raise taxes. The results are devastating. Just look at California. This is the model California has used for years and has resulted in the complete bankruptcy of the state.

Texas, with the leadership of a true fiscal conservative Rick Perry, is doing it different. When Texas encounters a budget surplus, they save some of the money in a “rainy day” account. They then return some of the money back to the people in the form of tax cuts. Finally, they allocate extra funds to programs they know are increasing (education) because of a growing population. When Texas hits hard times they don’t have to increase taxes, they just use the “rainy day” account.
Don’t think this method is realistic? How about these results:
- Despite the “worst recession since the Great Depression”, Texas will have a 10.7 Billion dollar budget surplus! They are saving 5.7 Billion for emergencies, and returning 3 billion back to the tax payers in tax cuts.
- Business is moving from high tax places like California to Texas. Texas created approximately 70 percent of the jobs created nationwide from Nov ’07 to Nov ’08.
- Unemployment is a full percent lower than the national average
- The states annual growth rate was 2.1% in 2008, the national average was -1.4% (negative growth)

But don’t think you will hear about any of this on the news. We are told everything is hopeless and we must put all our trust in the Federal Government to save us. The answer? More spending and more taxes of course!

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Quiet Please

I attended my second Hillcrest High School graduation ceremony last night at the Bi-Lo Center in Greenville. Congratulations to my little sister Cassie Jo who graduated with above a 4.0 GPA and an academic and athletic scholarship to Converse College! Way to go Cassie, we are all so proud of your hard work!

Hillcrest graduated over 500 students. To make it go as fast as they could, they give a speech beforehand asking/pleading/begging for the parents not to clap or yell when their child’s name is called. This way they can run down the list of names quickly without waiting for the noise to stop or risking someone not being able to hear their child’s name called. This is an OK idea on the face. But in reality, there are many parents who ARE going to cheer when their son/daughter gets their diploma, it WILL happen. Hillcrest knows this, so to “solve” this problem they post police officers at each isle. When the renegade family makes noise by clapping or cheering the police kick them out of the ceremony. This of course causes a huge distraction for everyone else. And as the ceremony proceeds, more and more parents rebel against the rules and simply get up and leave after cheering. This causes laughter and more distractions. The whole thing turns into a kind of circus with cheering parents and police and laughing and pointing. Unfortunately, the students suffer as much attention is taken away from them and their big night.

I thought Hillcrest would learn their lesson after the first time this happened, but sadly they have not and continue to insist on trying to quiet the crowd. We are in the Bi-Lo center for goodness sake! Just turn up the sound system! If you would just ask the parents to be brief and respectful when they cheer, than each family would give a quick cheer and no one would be distracted. Everyone’s attention would stay focused on the kids and not on the “disruptions” and the police officers. You can’t even hear someone cheering on the other side, the place is too huge. Hillcrest should stop this asinine policy immediately.

E-mail the Principle at “schamnes@greenville.k12.sc.us”

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Is Jay Cutler the man?

I must admit, I am more exited about watching the Chicago Bears this next NFL season than I have been for a while. Even more exited than the year after the Bears were in the Super Bowl against the Colts. The defense has always been solid and a joy to watch, special teams is outstanding and always a game changer, decent receivers and running backs usually... the Achilles' heal of the Bears has been the quarter back. Rex Grossman had a good arm, but missed the mark in the accuracy and was terrible at decision making. I would end up with ulcers and a nervous twitch if I had to watch Rex QB every year. When he unloaded a deep pass you held your breath, you never knew if a bears uniform or the opponent would show up on the camera when the ball came back down. Kyle Orton had good solid play, but he could not threaten deep which made it too easy on the opponents defense to crowd the line.

Jay Cutler is this years promise to change all that. Jay brings the whole package and has proven he can deliver. I hope this gives the offense the confidence they need. I would love to see Hester grab a couple 30 yard passes as they drop right over his shoulder in full stride.... paydirt!

But I recognize the odds are against us. Brett Favre started for Greenbay from 1992 to 2007.

In that time the Chicago Bears started the following quarterbacks:

1992: Harbaugh, Peter Tom Willis, Will Furrer

1993: Harbaugh, Willis

1994: Erik Kramer, Steve Walsh

1995: Kramer

1996: Kramer, Dave Kreig

1997: Kramer, Rick Mirer

1998: Kramer, Steve Stenstrom, Moses Moreno

1999: Shane Matthews, Cade McNown, Jim Miller

2000: McNown, Matthews, Miller

2001: Miller, Matthews

2002: Miller, Chris Chandler, Henry Burris

2003: Kordell Stewart, Chandler, Rex Grossman

2004: Grossman, Jonathan Quinn, Craig Krenzel, Chad Hutchinson

2005: Kyle Orton, Grossman

2006: Grossman

2007: Grossman, Brian Griese, Orton

So, while I am exited, I think one can understand why my expectations are not that high.

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Polar Bears

As follow-up to this post, I have done further investigation into the plight of the polar bear. As the picture on the right suggests, we are told polar bears are dying due to their habitat being destroyed (melting) from global warming. This has always struck me as odd.

Polar bear population data has always been a “best guess” by scientists. Because of the remote locations, solitary life, large roaming areas, and constantly moving sea ice, counting polar bears is aggravating to say the least.

In 1965, scientist gathered for their first international meeting. Chief of wildlife research at the US Dep. of Interior opened the meeting by quoting Sen. Bob Bartlett, “I am informed that at the present time there are no accurate or reliable figures available on the total world polar bear population or on the size of the annual kill". At the time, polar bears were hunted from aircraft, icebreaker boats, as well as from indigenous people. Hunting was not regulated and it wasn’t known how many were killed each year. Killing a polar bear was a status symbol for the rich and they would show the stuffed bear as a trophy.

In the 1960’s world polar bear populations were estimated anywhere from 5000 on the low end to 19,000 on the high end. To stop the polar bear from being hunted to extinction, the International Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears was signed on November 15, 1973 in Oslo by the five nations with polar bear populations: Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Norway, the U.S., and the former U.S.S.R. This agreement outlawed the unregulated sport hunting of polar bears and required each nation to protect the denning areas and share research on the bears. The polar bear seems to have bounced back quickly once hunting was stopped, if it was ever struggling to begin with. Today, it seems, scientists are comfortable with an estimation of 20,000 – 25,000 bears living in the wild worldwide. Of the 19 recognized polar bear subpopulations, 5 are declining, 5 are stable, 2 are increasing, and 7 have insufficient data.

So it seems there is exactly zero data to support the claims that polar bears are being driven to extinction due to global warming due to too much carbon dioxide in the air due to humans burning fossil fuels. It is all based on assumptions that IF lots of sea ice melts, and IF the bears get stuck on the mainland or away from the seal populations, then they will start dying due to starvation. This seems like quite the odd correlation. Polar bears eat mainly ringed seals. Ringed seals eat small fish like arctic cod and herring. Herring and cod eat plankton. And plankton “eats” carbon dioxide and sunlight. So the base of the food chain is actually carbon dioxide!

It has been shown that plants will grow up to twice as fast in 2000ppm carbon dioxide (we are at 350 now). So isn’t it logical to assume that higher levels of carbon dioxide would result in larger plankton blooms, more arctic cod and herring, more seals, and thus more polar bears? I don’t know, but it seems like less of a stretch then arguing there would be less polar bears (given the fact that ringed seals also use sea ice to rest on and will routinely move farther north to find denser ice). So even if the ice melts further north the seals and bears will go up north with the ice.

Unless someone shows me some data that large numbers of bears are dying because of higher carbon dioxide levels, I remain a skeptic.

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