HOW TO MAKE SCARY NEWS

Jason Box, a glaciologist at Ohio State University (who has been to Greenland 23 times to track its changing climate), gives us a perfect case study on how to make scary news: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/climate-desk-greenland-and-69-feet-sea-level-rise

First, you take perfectly good data (in this case the current area change of ice cover in Greenland). 

Second, you make a chart that zooms in on the data:

Third, you remove any perspective or context.  In this case you don’t tell how much ice there is in Greenland or what that rate of loss means or if it is unusual or how long it would take to all melt at that rate.

Finally, you throw in scary sounding quotes and meaningless statements:

“Humans have already set in motion 69 feet of sea level rise”

And you make scary youtube videos called “Can Greenland be saved?”: http://youtu.be/2r8cHXP8P4A

Scary huh!

So, let me show what happens when, instead of trying to mis-inform and scare, you are trying to educate and communicate.

First, you take the same data, and establish that Greenland is melting at about 130 km2 each year (50 square miles).  You can even show the same first chart.

Second, you communicate how much ice coverage there is in Greenland, about 734,000 square miles of ice.  Also, you communicate that most of the ice sheet is over a mile thick.

Now you can make another chart showing the affect of that melting on the total ice sheet.  At this rate it would take 14,680 years to melt.  At this rate, over the next hundred years, the Greenland ice sheet would drop to 729,000 square miles and total sea level rise would be 2 inches.

Not quite as scary huh?
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THE RESULTS ARE IN

One pesky thing about predicting the future is eventually the future arrives.
 
During the summer of 2007 we had an unusually warm Northern Hemisphere combined with winds that caused a "record" low level of Arctic sea ice.  The alarmist seized on this and warned that soon the Arctic would be ice free.  National Geographic News famously predicted that we could see an ice free Arctic by the end of the summer 2012.  We had passed the "tipping point" and the "Arctic was screaming!".

Well guess what... its the end of the summer 2012 now!  So lets see if there is any ice:

Looks like we just squeaked by with over 1.5 million square miles of ice!

Now, to be fair, we did have another "record" low ice coverage this year.  We have had an unusually hot, dry summer.  The following chart shows that last 12 years of ice coverage.  You can see the previous low ice summer (2007) in black and this year in red.  However, if you begin to look at the pattern, you see it is more random than linear.  This is a common mistake people trying to predict the future make.  The see a trend, and then assume it will continue linearly into the future.  This almost never happens, especially with weather.  It is like seeing that February was warmer than January and March warmer than February, so assuming the earth will continue to warm and by December we will all be dead.

What is really funny, is if you follow the red line back, we had a short "record" high ice coverage at the end of April of this year!

Also, which is usual for nature, far from being in some tipping point, nature is always in a combination of multiple cycles, one balancing out the other.  So, while the Northern Hemisphere has seen warmer weather and less ice, the Southern Hemisphere has seen colder weather and more ice.
But you won't see that on the news!

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BIBLE ABUSE

When people misquote or take out of context scripture to support their personal view, most are typically and rightfully angry.  The KKK claiming the Bible says whites are chosen over blacks, pastors demanding huge amounts of money with 50 fold "blessings" down the road, people claiming God doesn't want interracial marriage or God hates gays, etc.

So why do we allow the President to get away with it?

President Obama has repeatedly claimed Christianity teaches "I am my brothers keeper, I am my sisters keeper".  It does no such thing.  There is no reference to "sisters keeper" and the only reference to "brothers keeper" is after Cain kills Abel and is confronted by God, he says "Am I my brothers keeper?"  Hardly a Biblical commandment for Federal social programs.

Obama found another verse to butcher, again to argue the Bible is all about government taking from the rich and giving to the poor, and if we were good Christians we would vote for him and not that evil Republican:

“And when I talk about shared responsibility, it’s because I genuinely believe that in a time when many folks are struggling, at a time when we have enormous deficits, it’s hard for me to ask seniors on a fixed income, or young people with student loans, or middle-class families who can barely pay the bills to shoulder the burden alone.  And I think to myself, if I’m willing to give something up as somebody who’s been extraordinarily blessed, and give up some of the tax breaks that I enjoy, I actually think that’s going to make economic sense.  But for me as a Christian, it also coincides with Jesus’s teaching that “for unto whom much is given, much shall be required.”  It mirrors the Islamic belief that those who’ve been blessed have an obligation to use those blessings to help others, or the Jewish doctrine of moderation and consideration for others.”

First of all, Obama can "give something up" to help the poor any time he wants, it's called charitable GIVING!  The Bible is chock-full of wonderful verses and teachings about the blessings of giving to our fellow man and woman in need.  But that is not good enough for Obama, he has to find a quote that makes it sound like the rich are REQUIRED to give up their money.  And of course, not just give it directly to the poor, they must give it to the government, who then decides how to dish it out.

Unfortunately for Obama, this verse has nothing to do with money, it was pulled from the King James Version of Luke 12:48.  In this section, Jesus is teaching about being ready for the return of Christ.  He tells a parable of servants keeping the house while the master is away.  The servants who keep the house ready will please the master when he returns, while the servants who do not will be punished.  One of the disciples, Peter, asks if Jesus is just referring to them or to everyone.  Jesus' reply includes the verse Obama quoted,

The servant who knows the master’s will and does not get ready or does not do what the master wants will be beaten with many blows. But the one who does not know and does things deserving punishment will be beaten with few blows. From everyone who has been given much, much will be demanded; and from the one who has been entrusted with much, much more will be asked.

Jesus is answering Paul's question here by saying: Yes, I am talking to everyone.  I expect everyone to be ready when I return.  But especially those of you who I have given much (knowledge of the truth, time, teaching, spiritual gifts), I expect even more from you and will be angrier with you if you are not ready.

Obama's attempt to turn this phrase into Biblical justification for his personal political views is every bit as insulting and pathetic as the KKK claiming the Bible justifies their views.

If Obama wanted to take a verse out of context, I wonder why he didn't use Matthew 25:28 "For whoever has, will be given more and they will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them."

HA!
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PRIORITIES

"One in 10 Americans still can't find work. That's why creating jobs has to be our number one priority" - President Obama 2010

Obama's words sound reassuring, but his actions speak louder. In the last 6 months, our President has attended 106 fundraisers, gone golfing 10 times, but hasn't met with his own "Jobs Council" even once!  It's almost as if jobs are not his number one priority...
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THE ORDER OF THINGS

God created man to serve Him.  When man tries to have God serve himself, history is full of the resulting destruction.

Man created government to serve him.  When government tries to have man serve it, history is full of the resulting destruction.
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YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP

Eric Holder spoke in Texas to the NAACP yesterday, July 10. Part of his speech talked about the many states that are passing voting ID laws and how his Justice Department are blocking them because of harm to minorities:

And, as many of you know, yesterday was the first day of trial in a case that the State of Texas filed against the Justice Department, under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, seeking approval of its proposed voter ID law. After close review, the Department found that this law would be harmful to minority voters – and we rejected its implementation... Many of those without IDs would have to travel great distances to get them – and some would struggle to pay for the documents they might need to obtain them.

Here is the invite to the speech:

So its ok to check ID's for a speech, but to elect our leaders its harmful!

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ECONOMICS 101

This seems so simple to me. These are basic laws of economics. But somehow politicians have convinced the majority of people that these laws don't exist. Just give them the power and they can make it all better.
I wish everyone would read this article... several times if needed:

http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/The-Pathology-of-Privilege-Final_2.pdf

There is far too much info in this to do justice with quotes, but here are a few:

This simple idea—that voluntary exchange is mutually beneficial—is at the heart of modern economics.
...
Indeed, a national economy, with all its sophistication and complexity, is simply a very large number of mutually beneficial trades. And a recession is nothing more than a collapse in the number of such trades. Moreover, as individuals expand the number of people with whom they exchange, they are able to consume a wider diversity of products while becoming more specialized in production. Specialized production, in turn, permits greater productive efficiency and allows us to do more with less. It is no exaggeration to say that the expansion of mutually beneficial exchange accounts for the lion’s share of human progress.
...
Think of the thousands of talented lawyers, lobbyists, and strategic thinkers who occupy the expensive office buildings lining K Street in Washington, D.C. All of this talent might be employed in the discovery of new ways to bring value to consumers and to expand the gains from exchange. Instead, many of these smart and hardworking people spend their time convincing politicians to hand out privileges to their own firms or fending off attempts to hand out privileges to their competitors
...
Privilege can also have a profoundly negative effect on innovation. And a lack of innovation, in turn, can disadvantage an entire society.
...
In a classic, sweeping study, economist Mancur Olson went so far as to claim that special-interest privilege can account for the “rise and decline of nations.” As societies grow wealthy and stable, he argued, the seeds of their own destruction are sewn. Stable societies are fertile ground for special interests. These interest groups grow in power and influence over time, and once entrenched, rarely disappear. “On balance,” they “reduce efficiency and aggregate income in the societies in which they operate and make political life more divisive.” Eventually, “The accumulation of distributional coalitions [those that seek rents] increases the complexity of regulation, the role of government, and the complexity of understandings, and changes the direction of social evolution.
...
But we need not look so far for examples. Atif Mian of the University of California at Berkeley and Amir Sufi and Francesco Trebbi of the University of Chicago recently conducted an extensive examination of the political activity of the U.S. mortgage industry and housing interests in the run-up to the subprime meltdown of 2008.101 The authors found, “Beginning in 2002, mortgage industry campaign contributions increasingly targeted U.S. representatives from districts with a large fraction of subprime borrowers.” Analyzing more than 700 votes related to housing, the authors found that these contributions became an increasingly strong predictor of congressional votes. They also found that the share of constituents with low credit scores exerted increasing influence over voting patterns. Thus, “Pressure on the U.S. government to expand subprime credit came from both mortgage lenders and subprime borrowers.”102 Indeed, a slew of policies encouraged the expansion of credit in the subprime market. These policies, of course, benefited the privileged firms as well as the privileged subprime borrowers. But they also fanned the flames of an overheating housing market. For nearly a decade, capital and labor poured into housing and related industries, and when the bubble eventually burst, it threw the United States into its worst recession in decades.
...
As often happens with privilege, the “solution” to this problem involved more privilege.
...
Government-granted privileges are pathological. Privileges limit the prospects for mutually beneficial exchange—the very essence of economic progress. They raise prices, lower quality, and discourage innovation. They pad the pockets of the wealthy and well-connected at the expense of the poor and unknown. When governments dispense privileges, smart, hardworking, and creative people are encouraged to spend their time devising new ways to obtain favors instead of new ways to create value for customers. Privileges depress long-run economic growth and threaten short-run macroeconomic stability. They even undermine cultural mores, fostering cronyism, blurring the distinction between productive and unproductive entrepreneurship, and eroding people’s trust in both business and government.

Want to understand how our economy is supposed to work on a simple basic level? 
Read Section I
Want to understand the various ways this can be perverted? 
Read section II
Want to understand why I'm against "over regulation"? 
Read Sec II B
Want to know why conservatives are all bent out of shape about Solyndra? 
Read Sec II D
Want to understand why we need simple, fair, flat taxes? 
Read Sec II E
Want to know why the Government is ALWAYS slower, more expensive and less innovative? 
Read Sec III B and C
Want to get "money out of politics"?  Tired of companies "buying lawmakers"? 
Read Sec III D
Want to understand why people's approval of Government is at an all time low? 
Read Sec III J&K

Outline:
I. The Gains from Exchange
II. TYPES OF PRIVILEGE
     A. Monopoly Privilege
     B. Regulatory Privilege
     C. Subsidies
     D. Loan Guarantees
     E. Tax Privileges
     F. Bailouts
     G. Expected Bailouts
     H. Tariffs and Quotas on Foreign Competition
     I. Noncompetitive Bidding
III THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COSTS OF PRIVILEGE
     A. Monopoly Costs
     B. Productive Inefficiencies
     C. Inattention to Consumer Desires
     D. Rent-Seeking
     E. Distributional Effects
     F. Unproductive Entrepreneurship
     G. Loss of Innovation and Diminished Long-Run Economic Growth
     H. Macroeconomic Instability
     I. Cronyism
     J. Diminished Legitimacy of Government and Business
     K. Lost Social Trust
IV CONCLUDING REMARKS
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THE NEW LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE OLD

The new energy boom is beginning to explode.  But it is not solar, wind or batteries.  It's oil and gas.  With the new technologies in drilling techniques and hydraulic fracturing, the once "too expensive to recover" oil is now "too valuable to ignore".  And it is very good for Americans!
America (and Canada) are sitting on the world's largest reserves in known oil tar sands, oil shale and fracture required naturals gas!

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/07/08/the-energy-revolution-part-one-the-biggest-losers/

The two biggest winners look to be Canada and the United States. Canada, with something like two trillion barrels worth of conventional oil in its tar sands, and the United States with about a trillion barrels of shale oil, are the planet’s new super giant energy powers. Throw in natural gas and coal, and the United States is better supplied with fossil fuels than any other country on earth. Canada and the United States are each richer in oil than Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia combined.

I predict within the next 20 years, we will be the Saudi Arabia and Iran of the world in terms of cheap reliable energy production.

Oh yeah, the next time you hear Obama (or environmentalists) claim we have 2% of the worlds oil reserves but use 20% of the oil.  It's what is known as a .... LIE.
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ARE YOU MY MOTHER?

My first attempt at a political cartoon.  Taken from one of my favorite books.

Yes, on the surface it's a simple dig at Big Government.  But, I like the deeper philosophical questions it raises.  What does it mean to be a parent, just lay the egg?  Is government really supporting people if it doesn’t even know who they are?  What are the proper boundaries between family and government, are they being crossed, why?  Is the baby bird’s final question fair?

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GODS HELP

Myth: "God helps those that help themselves."

Somewhere between 70-80% of Americans believe the Bible teaches this, including Christians. This phrase is found nowhere in the Bible and actually is opposite to the teaching of God's Grace (undeserved favor).

Similar themes of this phrase originated in Greece, including one of the Fables of Hercules. The English political theorist Algernon Sidne...y originated the exact version we hear today. Benjamin Franklin also used it in his almanac in 1736 and has been widely quoted. As a deist, Franklin believed in God but that God did not intervene in earth's affairs, so all responsibility was incumbent upon people.

While self initiative is a great thing, don't make yourself sound ignorant by attributing this phrase to God's Word.

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KAYAK TRIP ON ENOREE RIVER

My trip down the Enoree River with my wife:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZfbttjR2Uk&feature=youtu.be

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RESULTS DO MATTER

It's time we stop judging based on the good intentions of the politicians. Results do matter. The results after spending almost a Trillion dollars on "jobs" are awful. Any business person in the world would be fired. Why are politicians immune?

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DECENTRALIZED EDUCATION

We asked to move Cacey into advanced classes for next year, this is the response from the teacher:

Cacey only missed the cut on his MAP scores by 3 pts. I think he will do just fine in Advanced. I'll fill out the form and have him sign it. Then I'll put it in guidance. You need to come in … to meet with a counselor and sign it. I'm glad you're moving him up. He needs the challenge and definitely can do it. I just couldn't do it because of the requirements.

So the teacher thinks a kid should be in a certain class, but can’t do it because the government test says he can’t. The parent and the teacher have to sign forms, then meet with councilors and sign forms, then the forms get scurried away to the ivory towers where education bureaucrats give them the official approval.

The purpose of MAP from the website states, “MAP, or the Measure of Academic Progress, is a computerized adaptive test which helps teachers, parents, and administrators improve learning for all students and make informed decisions to promote a child's academic growth.”

Looks like, as usual, the result is not as intended. Instead of helping improve learning and make informed decisions, it forces kids into boxes and removes all decision making ability. We don’t need more education money… we need more education freedom!

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UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOR PARTICIPATION

A look at the following chart and this CBO report:

The baby boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) are expected to have a significant affect on the participation rate in the decades to come.

“During the decades to come, one such development is expected to be a slower rate of growth of the labor force relative to the average growth rate of the past few decades. That slowdown is anticipated to occur primarily because of the aging and retirement of large numbers of baby boomers and because women’s participation in the labor force has leveled off since the late 1990s after having risen substantially throughout the three decades before that.”

However, they are not a large impact right now, for even the oldest of the baby boom generation are just reaching retirement age. The average is at the peak of their careers, in their mid/late 50’s. Those that are retiring early could be 1) well off and able to 2) given early retirement packages due to the bad economy as my company has done or 3) lost their job and on benefits that will permanently move them out of the job market. The poor economy is certainly a driving factor of our current depressed labor participation rate:

“The downward trend since 2000 can be attributed largely to the aging and retirement of the baby boomers. It also reflects a leveling off in participation among women between the ages of 25 and 54—who are no longer participating at higher rates than their predecessors did at the same age—and a pronounced decline in participation among people under 25. Participation has fallen even further since mid-2008, as a lack of job opportunities has caused many people to withdraw from or to remain out of the labor force.”

So how do we know how much? Is the current drop in the labor force just demographics or the economy or other factors? The CBO tries to answer that:

“The effect of demographics on the overall participation rate can be calculated by holding group-specific participation constant at 2007 (prerecession) rates but allowing population shares to adjust in line with CBO’s projections. CBO estimates that the demographic effect has already reduced the overall rate of participation by about 0.5 percentage points since 2007”

So, the aging baby boomers and other demographic affects have reduced the participation rate by 0.5% from 2007. The participation rate has dropped by 2.2% from that time. That is 1.7% or 5.3 million people that left the job market for economic or other reasons.
So is the economy bad and causing people to stop looking for work, or it is roaring back due to Obama’s policies and he just needs more time? The CBO has more to say.

“Two factors are especially important to the current projections of participation in the labor force. The first is near-term economic conditions. Because of the weakened state of the economy, the labor force is currently well below its potential size.”

“In late 2010, the unemployment rate averaged 9.6 percent, more than 4 percentage points above CBO’s estimate of the long-term natural rate. Accordingly, labor force participation has fallen significantly below its trend rate, as some workers (especially men between the ages of 25 and 54) have withdrawn from the labor force in the face of a poor job market and others (especially teens) have refrained from entering. By the final quarter of 2010, the actual labor force participation rate—64.4 percent—was more than a full percentage point below the potential participation rate as estimated by CBO. It also was lower than what would have been expected on the basis of the historical relationship between the labor force participation rate and the unemployment rate.”

“On balance, the recession has a modest downward influence on the participation rate projected for the 2016–2021 period, principally because some men in their 50s who have become unemployed or have left the labor force as a consequence of the recession are not expected to return to the labor force.”

“CBO’s labor force projections reflect the influence of public policies, especially those that involve taxes on labor or that directly affect the incentive to work in some other way”… “CBO estimates that scheduled changes in policies relative to the policies that were in effect in 2010 will reduce the labor force participation rate in 2021 by about 0.9 percentage points, thus reducing the size of the labor force by slightly more than 2 million people.”…“Specifically, changes in the tax code that are scheduled under current law will increase marginal tax rates on labor income (the tax rates applied to the last dollar earned) during the coming decade and, in CBO’s estimation, reduce labor force participation.”

I am certainly not blaming Obama for all our problems. But if he is going to run around trumpeting a drop in U3 unemployment as proof that is policies are working. We should at least look at how much those policies are costing, what is happening to the labor force and are there other factors involved. That is what I am trying to do. Of course my chart is biased, and zoomed in to the most convenient scale factors, and only puts selected information on it. All data can be manipulated to say what you want. I just wish more people were as critical of the “official” data as they are of those on the opposite political aisle.

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THEY'RE SO SMART THEY SEEM DUMB TO US DUMBIES

I don't intend to write much about "Climate Gate 2.0" It is more of the same, in my mind, proving (not suggesting) that the top climate scientist have been actively manipulating data and publications to promote the man-made global warming alarmism for political and financial purposes. If you wish to read about it, go here: http://www.wattsupwiththat.com/. I do, however, want to point out something in the below attached e-mail... to draw a larger point.

Philip D. Jones
- Climatologist at the University of East Anglia
- Professor in the School of Environmental Sciences
- BA in Environmental Sciences from the University of Lancaster
- MSc and PhD from the University of Newcastle upon Tyne
- Research in instrumental climate change, palaeoclimatology, detection of climate change and the extension of riverflow records
- Published papers on the temperature record of the past 1000 years
- Maintained the time series of the instrumental temperature record
- His work was featured prominently in both the 2001 and 2007 IPCC reports, where he was a contributing author to Chapter 12, Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes, of the Third Assessment Report[3] and a Coordinating Lead Author of Chapter 3, Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change, of the AR4.
- An ISI highly cited researcher
- Awarded the Hans Oeschger Medal from the European Geophysical Society in 2002
- Awarded the International Journal of Climatology prize of the Royal Meteorological Society for papers published in the last five years in 2001
- Awarded the Outstanding Scientific Paper Award by the Environmental Research Laboratories / NOAA

Phil Jones is the cream of the crop. He is one of the top climate scientist in the world. Our leaders listen to him to make decisions on our laws and regulations. His ideas are taught in our classrooms to our children. We rely on exceptionally smart people like this to make decisions for us, to better our lives and our planet.

BUT, as shown in the below e-mail, Phil Jones doesn't know how to make a simple chart in excel, then right click and add a trend line. He can't do it. He needs someone else to do it for him. This seems rather astounding to me. He is so smart that he can predict the temperature of the earth 50 years from now, but can't make a simple chart?! Really?!

So the regular engineer sitting at his desk (me) is better at crunching data than the world renowned climate scientist!

It made me think. All these people we hold up as so smart and so important, they are not. They are normal. And they shouldn't be making decisions for others.

The policeman in a small town is better at making security decisions than Janet Napolitano, the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.
The single mother with three kids is better at making her children's education decisions than Arne Duncan, the Secretary of the Department of Education.
The local family doctor is better at making my health decisions than Kathleen Sebelius the Secretary of The Department of Health and Human Services.
The pastor at the local church is better at making charitable decisions than the Welfare Office and Food Stamp Programs.
The career councilor at the local college is better at making job decisions than President Barack Obama and Congress.

Freedom, capitalism, individualism, conservatism. These ideas are based on the truth that millions of people, making millions of personal decisions, will ALWAYS make better, fairer, faster decisions than a few all powerful people at the top. The people at the top simply don't have the access or capability to process all the data on all the people and know all the consequences of the actions.

We need to stop looking at the "leaders" to fix our problems. We have the ability to fix them. In fact, we are much better at it!

From: Phil Jones
Sent: 20 December 2007 13:58
To: Bob Ward
Subject: Re: More nonsense on climate change

Bob,
Quickly re-reading this it sounds as though I’m getting at you. I’m not – just at the idiots who continue to spout this nonsense. It isn’t an issue with climatologists. All understand. If I tried to publish this I would be told by my peers it was obvious and banal. I will try and hide it in a paper at some point. I could put it on the CRU web site. I’ll see how I feel after the Christmas Pud.

I would have thought that this writer would have know better! I keep on seeing people saying this same stupid thing. I’m not adept enough (totally inept) with excel to do this now as no-one who knows how to is here.
What you have to do is to take the numbers in column C (the years) and then those in D (the anomalies for each year), plot them and then work out the linear trend. The slope is upwards. I had someone do this in early 2006, and the trend was upwards then. It will be now. Trend won’t be statistically significant, but the trend is up.

This is a linear trend – least squares. This is how statisticians work out trends. They don’t just look at the series. The simpler way is to just look at the data. The warmest year is 1998 with 0.526. All years since 2001 have been above 0.4. The only year before 2001 that was above this level was 1998. So 2cnd to 8th warmest years are 2001-2007

The reason 1998 was the warmest year was that it resulted from the largest El Nino event of the 20th century in 1997/8. We’ve not had anything resembling a major El Nino event since – they have all been minor.
Using regression, it is possible to take the El Nino event into account (with a regression based on the Southern Oscillation Index). This accounts for about 0.15 deg C of 1998′s warmth. Without that 1998 would have been at about 0.38.

There is a lot of variability from year-to-year in global temperatures – even more in ones like CET. No-one should expect each year to be warmer than the previous. The 2000s will be warmer than the 1990s though. This is another way of pointing out what’s wrong with their poor argument. The last comment about CET is wrong. 2007 will be among the top 10 warmest CET years – it will likely be 2cnd or 3rd.

Cheers

Phil

Ward responds:

Dear Phil,

Thanks for responding so comprehensively. I have plotted the data before, and as you observe, the trend is up but the result isn’t statistically significant, which I think makes it open to attack. I think the problem is that NOAA made the following statement in its report on the 2006 data:

“However, uncertainties in the global calculations due largely to gaps in data coverage make 2006 statistically indistinguishable from 2005 and several other recent warm years as shown by the error bars on the [1]global time series.”
I’m not sure how to argue against this point – it appears to imply that there is no statistically significant trend in the global temperature record over the past few years.

Best wishes,

Bob

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PROTEST WITHOUT A CLUE

Great article by by Gary Wolfram, Professor of Economics and Public Policy
Hillsdale College:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2809092/posts

The Occupy movement, Monty Python, Capitalism... its all in there!

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WHAT HAS CAPITALISM EVER DONE FOR US?

Replace "Romans" with "Capitalism" and you get the current Occupy movement in 1 min 23 sec.



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MOM, YOU BURNT THE FOOD

The disaster that is ethanol made from corn, to burn in our cars:
Less gas mileage, more taxes, more expensive fuel, more expensive food, more emissions, more water usage, more land usage, damaged engines. So what is good about it? It sounds good and makes politicians popular in Iowa (the first state to vote).

It is ALWAYS better to have millions of individuals making decisions about things like this than a privileged few in Washington.

http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/conserving-freedom/2011/nov/10/american-ethanol-disaster/#.TrySDGhFJo4.facebook

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Facebook quote

I saw this on facebook:


The answer was "Republicans and Tea Party people"

As a tea party person, this worked me up. First, If you think millionaires don’t pay enough taxes, that is fine. Just state that and a civil discussion can be had. Tying that to teacher pay, a completely separate issue, and demonizing Republicans as some type of crazy people who want to take money from poor teachers but allow rich millionaires to keep theirs is at best dishonest.


Second, please define “millionaires”. Do you want to raise taxes on those earning a million or more a year, or those with a net worth of a million or more? There are only about 235,000 households that make a million or more a year. They averaged 24.4% Federal taxes. If you increase that to 27.4% then you raise about 50 billion dollars. Our government spends that much money every 4.8 days. So after you pass this new tax, what is your plan in 5 days when the money runs out?


There are 10.5 million households with a net worth of over a million dollars. Do you want to raise taxes on them? That includes 7.5% of the population. Yes the super-rich, but also business owners, retired people, farmers, all kinds of people, even teachers I bet. These people could be earning very modest incomes, but have a nice home with a decent retirement account or live on a farm or own a business.


Third, I have not heard of a leading Republican candidate that is pushing to cut teacher pay by 20%. I have not spent a lot of time searching so I could be wrong. I know many Republicans and all Tea Party people are pushing for cutting federal spending overall. We currently spend $1,300,000,000,000 more than we take in as revenue each year. This cannot continue, it will stop. From 2008 to 2012, when the rest of the country was experiencing a recession, Department of Education spending grew from 59.2 Billion to 77.4 Billion. That’s a 31% increase! So we could cut spending by 20% and they would still be getting a nice increase from 2008, more than many of us can say.


Finally, as a teacher, it is awfully convenient for you to want someone else’s taxes to go up so you don’t have to feel any of the pain of the recession. Why don’t we tax all rich people to hire back all the chemical engineers that got laid off over the last 3 years? Chemical engineers are very important to our society. I think I should get a 31% increase in pay over the next few years, paid for by a tiny minority of Americans that can’t do anything about it.

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HOW TO MAKE A CHEAP HOMEMADE KOI POND SKIMMER

New skimmers are several hundred dollars. I couldn't justify spending that on what is basically a plastic box. So I built my own and saved bigtime. I couldn't find a good step-by-step guide on how to make a homemade pond skimmer. So I have built my own version and explained how I did it. My skimmer has been in use for several months now, it works pretty well. I will explain improvements on this model (Gilt2010) as I go.

Step 1) Buy a normal 32 gallon trashcan. It must be a heavy duty rugged version. Also it must be flexible, not brittle plastic.

IMPROVEMENT 1: Get a square trash can instead of a round one. This makes the inlet and outlet connections fit easier. The large inlet connection had to bend the round can to form a tight seal. It worked, but next time I will use a square can.



Step 2) Buy items needed to build skimmer, all items are at Lowes or Home-Depot:
- Small section of sch 40 4" PVC pipe (not the thin sch 30 drain pipe)
- Small section of sch 40 1 1/2" PVC pipe
- Two 4" toilet closet flanges (in PVC/plumbing section). There are a lot of different versions of these. Get the non-adjustable kind that is simply the flange with a 4" connection as shown. Ensure your 4" PVC pipe fits into the toilet flange.
- 1 4-way PVC connector (1 1/2")
- 3 PVC end caps (1 1/2")
- 1 male and 1 female 1 1/2" electrical conduit connectors. It is important that you go to the electrical section, not the plumbing section. The electrical conduit connectors have straight threading. PVC plumbing connectors have NPT threads (tapered). If you buy a normal bulkhead fitting from a boat or pool store you will spend $20-30, this is about $3.
- 1 rubber toilet gasket. These are in the toilet repair section. They have different sizes. Find one with flexible rubber that will snugly fit over the male threads of the electrical conduit connector.
- 4 stainless steel bolts with matching nuts and large washers. Ensure the bolt fits through the holes in the closet flange. Get washers that fit snugly over the bolt but are as big as you can find, you want to spread the force out so you don't crack the closet flange.
- 1 tube of black outdoor silicon caulking. Ensure you get the sunproof/freezproof outdoor formula.

IMPROVEMENT 2: This skimmer will work for small to medium sized ponds and pumps. I have a huge pond with a 2 speed pump (1/8 hp and 3/4 hp). The 4" inlet is too small to run my pump on high so I can only run low speed. Also, if you have lots of leaves or debris that falls into your pond, the smaller 4" opening can plug easier. Next time I will find a way to make a larger, preferably rectangle opening.



Step 3) Mark the location for the inlet a couple of inches from the top.



Step 4) Cut out the inlet



Try and make it as round and smooth as possible.



Step 5) Mark and cut out the hole for the outlet a few inches off the bottom.



Step 6) Place the rubber gasket on the male electrical conduit connector. Place this on the INSIDE of the tank and the female piece on the outside. Dry fit together and ensure it will fit tightly.



Step 7) Build the outlet strainer out of the PVC pieces as shown. Measure the inside of the tank and ensure this will fit at the bottom. Drill lots of small holes all over the entire strainer. The more holes the better. 3 legs of the strainer are capped (with holes drilled in them) and the 4th leg has the male conduit connector on it.



Step 7) Apply a small bead of silicon on the threads of the electrical conduit bulkhead and around the gasket. Snugly attach the strainer to the tank. Ensure the rubber gasket is between the strainer and the inside of the tank.

Step 8) Measure and cut a small piece of 4" PVC pipe to sit under the strainer and hold it level to the outlet. This ensures that the strainer doesn't move or bend which would break your seal on the tank. I used zip-ties to attach the strainer to the 4" PVC support (drilled a hole in the side of the support for the zip-tie to go through).



Step 9) Dig a hole at the desired location in your pond to support your skimmer. SPEND LOTS OF TIME ensuring you get the right height. The skimmer determines the depth of your pond. The water level will be about 3/4 of the way up the opening. Use levels or lasers or whatever you need to ensure you get the right depth. Too low and you won't be able to fill up your pond as you wanted. Too high and the skimmer won't get enough water as it will spill out somewhere else in your pond.



Step 10) Attach the discharge pipe to your skimmer. I had to dig a trench through my back wall of the pond. Ensure the discharge pipe has a slight downhill grade to it.



Step 11) Now you have to place the rubber lining in your pond. At the skimmer, run the rubber lining up the front of the skimmer and fold over the top and back inside the skimmer. DO NOT cut any holes in the rubber yet.

Step 12) Place one of the closet flanges over where the opening is. Punch out the holes in the liner and drill through the wall of the skimmer for the 4 bolts.

Step 13) Spread plenty of silicon rubber around the opening and between all the layers. Put plenty of silicon around the face of each closet flange.

Step 14) Bolt the two closet flanges together. The layers should be: flange, rubber lining, tank wall, rubber liner, flange. With silicon rubber between every layer. Tighten until the silicon squeezes out, don't overtighten and crack the closet flange.

Seep 15) Allow the silicon to dry completely. Then cut out the two layers of rubber lining inside the flanges and any excess silicon. Make the inside as smooth as possible.



Step 16) Take a 10-12" section of 4" PVC pipe. Cut a 45 degree angle on one end of the pipe on the bottom half of the pipe.

Step 17) Put two screws through the pipe so they are sticking out at about the 10 o'clock and 2 o'clock position opposite from the 45 degree angle cut.

Step 18) Dry fit the pipe into the inside closet flange. This does not need to be glued, it should hold tight on its own.

Step 19) Buy a small nylon mesh tarp from Northern Tool. This is a very fine mesh material and will stop small pieces from getting into your pump. Cut a hole just large enough to slide over the 4" PVC pipe on the inside of your skimmer. Cut the tarp to fit all the way into the skimmer. Use a lighter to melt the cut edges so they don't fray. Fit the tarp inside the skimmer and secure to the outside of the tank (I used large binder clips, but these rust).

Step 20) Use any large mesh nylon bag with a pull string on one side. A small laundry bag works good. Don't use natural fibers, must use nylon or other plastic that won't rot.



Step 21) Attach the mesh bag around the 4" PVC inlet pipe. Pull the cord tight so no leaves can get around the bag. The two screws hold the bag in place. The 45 degree cut on the bottom of the pipe allow the water and leaves to fall freely into the bag without plugging up because the bag hangs down. Without the 45 degree cut on the pipe, the bag will hang over the opening and leaves will plug it.



Your Done! I covered mine with a fake rock from http://www.fakerock.com/
I have found that I have to dump leaves out of the bag regularly, but haven't had to clean the mesh tarp but about once a month.

Hope this was beneficial!
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O' CHRISTMAS TREE

Question: Is the celebration of Christmas and modern Christmas traditions wrong?

Argument 1: Christians should not have a Christmas tree.

Evidence 1: The Bible warns against it

The bible warns against cutting down a tree and bringing it into your house to decorate it.
Jeremiah 10: 1 Hear what the LORD says to you, people of Israel. 2 This is what the LORD says: “Do not learn the ways of the nations or be terrified by signs in the heavens, though the nations are terrified by them. 3 For the practices of the peoples are worthless; they cut a tree out of the forest, and a craftsman shapes it with his chisel. 4 They adorn it with silver and gold; they fasten it with hammer and nails so it will not totter.”

Isaiah 44 also warns about cutting trees and bowing in front of them.
14 He cut down cedars, or perhaps took a cypress or oak. He let it grow among the trees of the forest, or planted a pine, and the rain made it grow. … he makes an idol and bows down to it.

Jeremiah 3 warns against placing presents under a tree.
12 Go, proclaim this message toward the north: ‘Return, faithless Israel,’ declares the LORD, ‘I will frown on you no longer, for I am faithful,’ declares the LORD, ‘I will not be angry forever. 13 Only acknowledge your guilt— you have rebelled against the LORD your God, you have scattered your favors to foreign gods under every spreading tree, and have not obeyed me”, declares the LORD.

Evidence 2: It is a pagan tradition

In addition to biblical references against it, the Christmas tree isn’t even a Christian tradition. Pagans of the past brought evergreens into their homes and decorated trees to celebrate the Roman feast of Saturnalia and to celebrate their god Bacchus. Some pagans would bring evergreen boughs into their home during the winter solstice because they thought they possessed magical powers to bring in spring. All other plant life would die as the days kept getting shorter. The pagans thought the evergreen held the answer to keep the earth from freezing over. Germanic people decorated trees to honor their god Woden (from which Wednesday gets its name). Trees were viewed as symbolizing eternal life, and holly, mistletoe, the Yule log, and the wassail bowl all come from these traditions and predate Christianity.

Early settlers of America and English Puritans condemned many Christmas decorations. The Yule log, holly, mistletoe, carols, and decorated trees were all preached against by Oliver Cromwell as “heathen traditions”. He argued they desecrated the sacred event of Christ’s birth. The second governor of the Pilgrims, William Bradford, tried to eliminate all such decorations during Christmas time, calling them “pagan mockery”.

So what is a good Christian to do? Should we purge our society of the Christmas tree?

Response to Evidence 1: The Bible does not warn against Christmas trees.

The Bible verses given above do not forbid Christmas trees. I argue, in fact, they don’t have to do with trees at all. Each is an example of taking a small snippet of scripture, taking it out of context, and then using it to back up your personal beliefs. A full reading of these chapters makes it crystal clear what God is trying to warn us against.
Jeremiah 10 God and Idols
1 Hear what the LORD says to you, people of Israel. 2 This is what the LORD says: “Do not learn the ways of the nations or be terrified by signs in the heavens, though the nations are terrified by them.

This refers to not being afraid of pagan gods. The people of Israel are told not to use the stars or moon as signs and be afraid. For the stars and moon are not gods and have no power, only the LORD is God.

3 For the practices of the peoples are worthless; they cut a tree out of the forest, and a craftsman shapes it with his chisel. 4 They adorn it with silver and gold; they fasten it with hammer and nails so it will not totter. 5 Like a scarecrow in a cucumber field, their idols cannot speak; they must be carried because they cannot talk. Do not fear them; they can do no harm nor can they do any good.”

Clearly, this is referring to idol worship not Christmas trees. God says it is worthless to cut a tree, shape it into an idol and decorate it with Gold and silver. He explains that the idol has no power, it can not communicate, it can not move, because it is only wood. This passage would have the exact same meaning if stone was used instead of wood. “Do not go cut a stone, shape it, adorn it with gold and silver”. God is not warning us against trees or stones. He is warning us against making idols.

6 No one is like you, LORD; you are great, and your name is mighty in power. 7 Who should not fear you, King of the nations? This is your due. Among all the wise leaders of the nations and in all their kingdoms, there is no one like you. 8 They are all senseless and foolish; they are taught by worthless wooden idols. 9 Hammered silver is brought from Tarshish and gold from Uphaz. What the craftsman and goldsmith have made is then dressed in blue and purple— all made by skilled workers. 10 But the LORD is the true God; he is the living God, the eternal King. When he is angry, the earth trembles; the nations cannot endure his wrath. 11 “Tell them this: ‘These gods, who did not make the heavens and the earth, will perish from the earth and from under the heavens.’” 12 But God made the earth by his power; he founded the world by his wisdom and stretched out the heavens by his understanding. 13 When he thunders, the waters in the heavens roar; he makes clouds rise from the ends of the earth. He sends lightning with the rain and brings out the wind from his storehouses. 14 Everyone is senseless and without knowledge; every goldsmith is shamed by his idols. The images he makes are a fraud; they have no breath in them. 15 They are worthless, the objects of mockery; when their judgment comes, they will perish. 16 He who is the Portion of Jacob is not like these, for he is the Maker of all things, including Israel, the people of his inheritance— the LORD Almighty is his name.

The rest of the chapter backs up the previous interpretation, that we are talking about idol worship not trees. Jeremiah compares the power of the LORD with the foolishness of wooden idols. He explains that idols are made by people and are powerless and will be destroyed. On the contrary, the LORD has real power and has created everything.

Isaiah 44, when read in context, quickly reveals that we are again being warned about idol worship. Trees are an irrelevant detail in the scripture, not the subject of it. In fact, the above scripture had to be drastically edited to get it to even sort of sound like trees were the subject. When read in its entirety, there is no real argument.

Isaiah 44: The LORD, Not Idols 6 “This is what the LORD says— Israel’s King and Redeemer, the LORD Almighty: I am the first and I am the last; apart from me there is no God. 7 Who then is like me? Let him proclaim it. Let him declare and lay out before me what has happened since I established my ancient people, and what is yet to come— yes, let them foretell what will come. 8 Do not tremble, do not be afraid. Did I not proclaim this and foretell it long ago? You are my witnesses. Is there any God besides me? No, there is no other Rock; I know not one.” 9 All who make idols are nothing, and the things they treasure are worthless. Those who would speak up for them are blind; they are ignorant, to their own shame. 10 Who shapes a god and casts an idol, which can profit nothing? 11 People who do that will be put to shame; such craftsmen are only human beings. Let them all come together and take their stand; they will be brought down to terror and shame. 12 The blacksmith takes a tool and works with it in the coals; he shapes an idol with hammers, he forges it with the might of his arm. He gets hungry and loses his strength; he drinks no water and grows faint. 13 The carpenter measures with a line and makes an outline with a marker; he roughs it out with chisels and marks it with compasses. He shapes it in human form, human form in all its glory, that it may dwell in a shrine. 14 He cut down cedars, or perhaps took a cypress or oak. He let it grow among the trees of the forest, or planted a pine, and the rain made it grow. 15 It is used as fuel for burning; some of it he takes and warms himself, he kindles a fire and bakes bread. But he also fashions a god and worships it; he makes an idol and bows down to it. 16 Half of the wood he burns in the fire; over it he prepares his meal, he roasts his meat and eats his fill. He also warms himself and says, “Ah! I am warm; I see the fire.” 17 From the rest he makes a god, his idol; he bows down to it and worships. He prays to it and says, “Save me! You are my god!” 18 They know nothing, they understand nothing; their eyes are plastered over so they cannot see, and their minds closed so they cannot understand. 19 No one stops to think, no one has the knowledge or understanding to say, “Half of it I used for fuel; I even baked bread over its coals, I roasted meat and I ate. Shall I make a detestable thing from what is left? Shall I bow down to a block of wood?” 20 Such a person feeds on ashes; a deluded heart misleads him; he cannot save himself, or say, “Is not this thing in my right hand a lie?” 21 “Remember these things, Jacob, for you, Israel, are my servant. I have made you, you are my servant; Israel, I will not forget you. 22 I have swept away your offenses like a cloud, your sins like the morning mist. Return to me, for I have redeemed you.” 23 Sing for joy, you heavens, for the LORD has done this; shout aloud, you earth beneath. Burst into song, you mountains, you forests and all your trees, for the LORD has redeemed Jacob, he displays his glory in Israel.

Again, the passage is not talking about the sin of cutting down trees. If that is to be the interpretation of the passage, then one must also conclude that being a craftsman is bad, being a blacksmith is bad, being a carpenter is bad, planting trees is bad and burning wood for warmth or for cooking food is bad. No! God is revealing how silly it is to worship man-made idols. How can you worship something that you also use to cook your food? How can you worship something that grows outside and is watered by the rain? Idol worship is what the LORD hates, not tree cutting.

Finally, the passage in Jeremiah is speaking about the unfaithfulness of Israel, not about presents under a tree.
Jeremiah 3 Unfaithful Israel
6 During the reign of King Josiah, the LORD said to me, “Have you seen what faithless Israel has done? She has gone up on every high hill and under every spreading tree and has committed adultery there. 7 I thought that after she had done all this she would return to me but she did not, and her unfaithful sister Judah saw it. 8 I gave faithless Israel her certificate of divorce and sent her away because of all her adulteries. Yet I saw that her unfaithful sister Judah had no fear; she also went out and committed adultery. 9 Because Israel’s immorality mattered so little to her, she defiled the land and committed adultery with stone and wood. 10 In spite of all this, her unfaithful sister Judah did not return to me with all her heart, but only in pretense,” declares the LORD. 11 The LORD said to me, “Faithless Israel is more righteous than unfaithful Judah. 12 Go, proclaim this message toward the north: ‘Return, faithless Israel,’ declares the LORD, ‘I will frown on you no longer, for I am faithful,’ declares the LORD, ‘I will not be angry forever. 13 Only acknowledge your guilt— you have rebelled against the LORD your God, you have scattered your favors to foreign gods under every spreading tree, and have not obeyed me,’ declares the LORD. 14 “Return, faithless people,” declares the LORD, “for I am your husband. I will choose you—one from a town and two from a clan—and bring you to Zion. 15 Then I will give you shepherds after my own heart, who will lead you with knowledge and understanding.

The LORD rebukes Israel for its unfaithfulness. He compares it to adultery. The use of trees is a metaphor to show how numerous the unfaithfulness is, “On every high hill and under every spreading tree”. If one interprets this passage to say we can’t do things under spreading trees (presents at Christmas) then shouldn’t we also outlaw doing things on top of high hills? This is an incorrect interpretation. The meat of this passage is to obey the LORD your God! For He loves us and wants only the best for us, like a husband or a shepherd.

After reading the full Bible passages, I feel there is no warning in the Bible about having a Christmas tree. The question remaining is: is having a Christmas tree in my house an idol? If a Christmas tree is an idol, then obviously the Bible says we shouldn’t have one. An idol is something greatly admired or loved to excess, or something that is worshiped as a god and believed to have supernatural powers. Personally, a Christmas tree does not meet any of these requirements for me. I do not admire the tree or think it has any power or purpose. However, maybe some Christians do believe that the Christmas tree has special powers. Perhaps they feel it brings good luck or good health or gets them closer to God. In these cases, I would strongly urge them not to have one in their homes. But absent those cases, I see no Biblical warning against having a Christmas tree.

Response to Evidence 2: It was a pagan tradition… so what?

Paganism comes from the Latin term paganus, meaning “country dweller”. We use it today as a broad term to refer to old polytheistic religious traditions. Throughout human history, our species have idolized hundreds of gods, observed thousands of traditions and created millions of symbols. The vast majority of these we won’t ever know about. Some, through archeology, we have discovered. The Bible contains numerous verses about not worshiping false gods. However, does using something that was once used in a pagan tradition equal to idol worship? I surely hope not! Thousands of things can be traced to pagan tradition: the cross, the fish symbol, candles, wreaths, giving gifts, crown of thorns, bonfires, hymns and carols, the word amen, the days of the week, the months of the year, the seasons, Easter, wedding rings, wedding veil, College/fraternity/society seals, astrology terms and signs, wisdom of the owl, leadership of the eagle, currency, the modern medical symbol, the military rank symbols, etc, etc, etc. An attempt to purge our lives of anything that may have a non-Christian history is an endless exercise. Would doing it make you closer to God or a better Christian? God wants us to put Him before everything else, not eliminate everything else but Him. Colossians Chapter 2 speaks specifically about this.
Freedom From Human Rules
16 Therefore do not let anyone judge you by what you eat or drink, or with regard to a religious festival, a New Moon celebration or a Sabbath day. 17 These are a shadow of the things that were to come; the reality, however, is found in Christ. 18 Do not let anyone who delights in false humility and the worship of angels disqualify you. Such a person also goes into great detail about what they have seen; they are puffed up with idle notions by their unspiritual mind. 19 They have lost connection with the head, from whom the whole body, supported and held together by its ligaments and sinews, grows as God causes it to grow. 20 Since you died with Christ to the elemental spiritual forces of this world, why, as though you still belonged to the world, do you submit to its rules: 21 “Do not handle! Do not taste! Do not touch!”? 22 These rules, which have to do with things that are all destined to perish with use, are based on merely human commands and teachings. 23 Such regulations indeed have an appearance of wisdom, with their self-imposed worship, their false humility and their harsh treatment of the body, but they lack any value in restraining sensual indulgence.

The Christmas tree may have some pagan origins as explained. However, it also has some Christian origins. An early story about Saint Boniface in 722 says he encountered some pagans about to sacrifice a child at the base of a huge oak tree. He saved the child and cut down the tree. A fir tree then grew from the cut stump. He called the tree a holy tree, a symbol of God’s promise of eternal life. Another story says Martin Luther noticed the beauty of snow covered trees while in the woods so he took one home and decorated it with candles.

Another argument for the Christmas tree being okay is that the Bible shows other pagan traditions being changed to be about Christ. The most famous one, and one that Jesus himself did, is the taking of bread and wine. Jesus instructed his disciples to perform this in remembrance of Him. However, Jesus did not invent this. Eating sacred bread and wine probably comes from a festival celebrating ancient goddess Mithra and the sun god feasting together. Many people could have recognized this at the time. However, Jesus said that from then on, and for Christians, it represented his sacrifice for us. The fact that it was used previously in a pagan tradition did not bother Jesus. It should not bother us either.

My final argument, and perhaps the most convincing, is that ancient pagan traditions are not the original source. God created the earth. He created the fir tree. Pagan traditions of using trees as idols or in ceremonies are perversions of the original truth and the original Creator. Bowing before a tree in a pagan ceremony is a perversion of idolizing the created instead of idolizing the Creator. It can not be the other way around. The pagans didn’t get the fir tree “first”. So it can not be possible that using it now is bad. We are simply re-claiming it as belonging to the one true God!

So, in conclusion, I have no issue with heading out in a few weeks and getting a nice Christmas tree. We will decorate and set it up in our home and put our gifts under it for Christmas morning. I understand that the Christmas season is a celebration of the birth of Jesus Christ. The Christmas tree is simply a part of that celebration. HE is the reason for the season!

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Housing Bubble

There has been a lot of chatter about the possible upcoming "Higher Education bubble".
A bubble exists when the price for something continually outpaces the real value of it. Absent government intervention, products are subject to supply and demand. When irrational demand occurs for various reasons, bubbles are created. Eventually, they burst as the demand drops to normal levels but the supply remains high. The "value" plummets. This happens all the time and usually doesn't result in any problems at all because the scale is small.

A great current example is "silly bands". If you have kids you know about these. They are rubber bands in neat colors and shapes. They became extremely popular last year and just about every kid had to have one. The demand was very high, and whoever invented them became rich. Good for them, the American dream realized in a capitalistic society. However, what is the real value of a rubber band? Not much, maybe a few pennies. So selling these things for $1 each and kids trading them like money only works while demand is very high and supply is low. Today, you can buy these things everywhere. You can get a package of 25 at Walmart for $1. Every kid who wants one has one-hundred. Demand has dropped as the "fad" faded, but supply is still high. If you had bought $60,000 of silly bands last year, hoping to sell them for profit this year, you lost. This didn't cost the economy any headaches though, because not too many people where heavily invested in silly bands. Some kids may have wasted their allowance but not much else.

The housing bubble was another beast altogether. The problem occurred, in my opinion, because the laws of supply and demand were thwarted by government. This allowed the bubble to get huge. Really, really, really huge! Federal programs and federal lenders encouraged new loans at all costs. It was thought that the benefits of owning a home were so great that everyone should have one. New laws, new loan types, new regulations all came out to generate more mortgages. Investors all over the world bought them because the price kept going up and up and up. Looking at the data now, one can easily see the bubble. The chart below shows US median income in red. See the nice linear upward trend as we, on average, increase our standard of living and as inflation did it's thing? Now look at the blue line. This is the US median selling price for a home. It is going up at a steeper rate (homes getting bigger, fancier, materials costing more). But over the past decade it goes crazy, reaching an almost vertical slope as the price for a house skyrockets. This is the bubble.

We all remember this, some of us tried to buy houses at this time. I remember my cousin trying to buy a house. Looking at little, one bedroom, starter homes that were selling for over a quarter of a million dollars. Wow. This was completely unsustainable. Obviously, the price can not continue to outpace the income of people. This can only be done with more and more debt. We were lied to and told that our homes were "good debt" because the value goes up (it had every year for decades). But, finally, the insanity stopped as people, by the millions, could not pay for the loans they took out and demand dropped. Also, supply reached a peak as many thousands of homes were built and bought by investors and no-one was actually living in them. "Suddenly" we realized we have WAY too many homes, and WAY too much debt that no one could pay. Unfortunately, instead of a few kids loosing their allowance, we all lost. And governments lost. And business lost. And wall street lost. And banks lost. Anyone invested in housing lost. Hello recession of 2009.

So anyway, that was a lot of buildup. I thought we were talking about College?
The laws of supply and demand for higher education are currently being thwarted by the government. The true "cost" of college is being hidden. Governments are promoting more and more lending and cheaper and cheaper money to get everyone they can to attend college. We are told this is "good debt" because we need to go to college to better ourselves. The following chart again shows the US median income ("family" instead of "household", is a bit higher? but same general trend) in yellow. The blue line is the cost of a 4-year college.


Look familiar?!
The governments solutions to this have been exactly the opposite of what they should be. Similar to the housing bubble, they continue to promote college at all costs, coming up with new programs and new loans to get an ever increasing number of people to go to college at ever increasing debt levels. College costs can not continue to go up at this rate without a corresponding rise in income. Debt levels will continue to go up and up until we "break" the bubble. The worse case scenario may be the government takes over the higher education system altogether. The costs will then be "invisible" and are guaranteed to increase while service decreases with no competition.

I am not saying we shouldn't go to college. Just saying we need to carefully evaluate if we are going to get a good return on our investment. You have to be sure that your income after graduation is sufficient to justify the amount of debt. I.E. don't borrow $100K to become a school teacher. And check the placement rate for graduates with your desired degree. Do you only have a 50/50 shot at actually getting a job after graduation? Look for ways to reduce costs by starting at community or satellite colleges for the first couple of years, co-opting, paying as you go with a part-time job, online courses, etc. Also, don't go to college just because you think you should without a clear plan for graduation. It is too expensive just to hang out and take classes without even knowing what you want to get a degree in. Of course this is all pretty difficult when you are 18 years old. I learned this the hard way by getting a Chemical Engineering degree from Rose-Hulman instead of Purdue. I could have gone 4 years at Purdue for what I spent in a semester at Rose. I am paying for that mistake now, literally.

Is higher education the next bubble to burst? I don't know. College can be a very rewarding and beneficial investment in yourself and your future, just be careful not to go into $60,000 of student loan debt and be holding nothing but a bag full of silly bands in 4 years!
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CO2 DRASTICALLY AFFECTS PLANTS!

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