HURRICANE ARTHUR

Hurricane Season is from June 1 – November 30 each year. This year’s first hurricane, Arthur (Cat 1), has just formed and is sitting off the coast of SC.

Here is a satellite photo of Arthur yesterday as the tropical storm formed into a hurricane:

It is not projected to make landfall other than perhaps the outer banks (Hatteras Island) of NC. These communities are essentially built on a sandbar and barrier islands jutting out into the Atlantic Ocean and averaging just a few feet above sea level, thus they are susceptible to storms and flooding. In 2003 the Island was cut in half by Hurricane Isabel. The community filled the hole with sand but was damaged again in 2011 by Hurricane Irene. 

Each year there is an average of about two Cat 1 hurricanes, one Cat 2 hurricane, and one major (Cat 3,4,5) hurricane that forms in the Atlantic. However, some years are extremely busy. The following are years with 10 or more hurricanes: 1870, 1886, 1887, 1893, 1916, 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2010, 2012. 2005 has the record for most hurricanes (15), with 7 of those major. Wilma was a massive Cat 5 hurricane that may have been one of the strongest storms we’ve experienced. Hurricane Katrina (Cat 5) also hit that year which was the costliest natural disaster in US history due to its landfall into low lying New Orleans. Hurricanes don’t always make landfall, many times they form, then blow back out to sea before reaching the US. This is the paths of all the known hurricanes over the last 150 years:

Over the last 100 years a major hurricane (Cat 3,4,5) makes landfall in the USA every 1.4 years on average. However, the last major hurricane to make landfall was Hurricane Wilma (Cat 5) on October 19, 2005. That is 8.7 years ago! This is also a current record of longest time between a major hurricanes to hit the US. So we are “due” for a major hurricane landfall anytime. Hopefully we continue this record trend this year, but the odds are stacking against us.

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A FEW CARBON FACTS

A few facts and opinions regarding the renewed push to sensationalize global warming and implement CO2 limits by the EPA and the Obama administration:

1) The world, on average and based on our best measurements, has warmed 0.7 C since the invention of the internal combustion engine in the late 1800’s.  You would have absolutely no way of knowing this, or caring, if you weren't constantly told this was a terrible thing.

2) The world, on average and based on our best measurements, has warmed over 8 C since the last ice age 20,000 years ago.  At that time, most of our country and Europe were under a mile thick layer of ice.  A warming planet is a good thing.  We should rejoice and give thanks that our planet is continuing to warm.  Because one day another ice age will begin, and that will be very bad indeed.

3) Based on our best satellite data, the planet has not increased in average temperature in over 17 years.  This means that you, mister high school senior, who has listened to global warming teaching in science class every year, has experienced absolutely no measurable warming in your whole life!  Think about that for a bit.

4) CO2 is not a pollutant.  It is a molecule that along with water and Sun energy forms the plant life on our planet through the chemical reaction of photosynthesis.  It creates carbon chains using CO2 and is why all life on planet earth is carbon based.  Our mass comes from CO2.  Without CO2 in our atmosphere, life as we know it on planet earth dies.

5) Despite how important it is, CO2 barely exists in our atmosphere.  It is currently at 0.040%.  In the 1950’s when we stared measuring it at Mauna Loa in Hawaii, it was at 0.031%.  This increase is most certainly mainly caused by our burning of fossil fuels.  Nitrogen is 78.030% and oxygen is 20.990% and argon is 0.940%.  There are other trace gases such as hydrogen, neon, helium, krypton and xenon up there as well.  Plants are very happy that we have put more CO2 in the air.  The earth is currently showing signs of greening by satellites.

6) Anytime you burn something you release CO2.  This is the opposite of the photosynthesis reaction.  Animals eating, decomposing organic matter, and all forms of fire use oxygen to combine with the carbon chains and release the energy.  The CO2 molecule is then released to start the cycle over again.  There is no “clean” burning that will not release CO2.  It is not a pollutant.  It is the only and the cleanest form of combustion.  You cannot tell a coal company to reduce their CO2 output unless they reduce their burning of coal.  There is not a magic widget you can put on a factory that makes CO2 go away.  There are many air pollutants that can be released by the burning of coal such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, mercury, etc.  These ARE pollutants and can be removed.  But CO2 cannot.

7) Storms, both hurricanes and tornadoes, are NOT getting worse.  In fact, we are currently experiencing the longest time between major hurricanes to hit the US.  This means we are due for a bad season soon.  Not because of CO2, but because that’s what happens naturally.

8) The oceans levels are NOT accelerating.  The oceans get deeper as ice melts.  This has been happening from the last ice age.  Also, land is not solid, it floats on giant tectonic plates and moves around and up and down. As best we can tell, the ocean gets about 7” deeper every 100 years.  If you build your house on a sandbar at the coast you will eventually get wet, this has nothing to do with CO2 (Matthew figured this out 2000 years ago, Mt 7:24-27).

9) We are NOT experiencing more drought.  Physics demands that warmer temperatures will evaporate more water and hold more humidity in the air resulting in more rainfall.  It is extremely hard to measure because the average changes are so tiny compared to the noise, but we think the US has gotten slightly more rain compared to 100 years ago.  This is good!

One might ask why you keep hearing that these things are happening, even from the President, while I am telling you they are not.  That is a great question to ask!  Simply put, one of us is lying (hint, one of us gets huge amounts of new tax money and power, the other doesn't).

BEHOLD!

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CONTROVERSY

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YOU ARE THE EVIL RICH

Warning, this NYT op ad By Mark R. Rank might mess with your notion of who the “rich 1%” are:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/20/opinion/sunday/from-rags-to-riches-to-rags.html?smid=pl-share&_r=0

Income inequality is a darling of the politicians who want to make you think there are a few ultra-rich at the top who are taking everything at the expense of the rest of us (and of course only by voting these politicians into more power can it be fixed). But the real story of America has always been its amazing opportunity and mobility.

While it’s true there is a huge gap between the ultra-rich and the rest of Americans, the fact is, these rich aren't the same group of people every year. Americans, during their lifetime, not only regularly, but NORMALLY make it into the top 10% of wage earners! And the vast majority (73%) will find themselves in the top 20% of earners at some point. An incredible 12% (42 million people) will be the “Evil 1%” for a year. Other years, those same Americans find themselves at the bottom or in the middle. Selling a business, cashing in an investment, receiving a big bonus or inheritance, making a big sale, etc. will propel people into the top brackets of wage earners. They will be the “evil rich” people that year. But the next year it will be a whole different group of people. The number of people who are at the very top consistently every year is so small, you can almost count them on your hands!

So, instead of jealously attacking the rich, or voting for politicians who will punish them with ever more taxes, congratulate them on their great year! For, in all likelihood, YOU will be in that group at some point. And shouldn't you be congratulated for decades of hard work which have culminated in a big financial payout? Or should the profits from that business you spent your whole life building and finally sold, or from that large collection of your paintings you sold, or from that huge bonus you got with your promotion after spending 25 years working for the same company be confiscated by politicians so they can “fix” income inequality and make things more “fair”?

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A WARMING PERSPECTIVE

The following is my attempt to put perspective on Global Warming.  Perhaps it will help illustrate why I don't think the sky is falling and I am unwilling to give politicians the power to regulate CO2 to help "save" the planet.  Share the picture if you like.

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